Good Friday morning all. I’ll repeat…December ’18 will be viewed as an aberration. A perfect storm of stock market negativity…90% of it structural/political…that marked significant long term lows. And we have some hard evidence to back it up.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. As expected, J Powell’s Fed hiked rates to 2.5% yesterday. The DJ had hit an intraday high of +330 just moments earlier…then Powell started talking…. -500 DJ within 30 minutes, before closing -351. Powell said two things that sent the markets lower (850 point swing in the DJ):
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. While US markets gave up more than half of their gains yesterday, with the DJ closing +157 (from 450 pt highs), we did see a pattern change. Maybe an important one. Check out the internals from yesterday. Better than 2–1 advance/decline and a big 3–1 up/down volume.
Read MoreGood Friday afternoon all and what a week it has been. Markets were closed this Wednesday for the DC memorial of former President George HW Bush, and today we remember the attack on Pearl Harbor and the 2400 American lives lost. I had not seen the video below until today.
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. What a week. The Fed admits they screwed up and the DJ rallies 1000 points for the week. The 10%+ correction that should never have happened. My mentors (RIP Ted Parsons and Michael Metz) taught me so much about the psychology of investing. The emotions of money…wow.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Some quick hitters to start the day. Third quarter earnings have absolutely killed it….regardless of how the markets have responded to the results. Yes, we want to watch the “reaction” to the news rather than the news itself, but until we see a semblance of proof that the US economy is decelerating,
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. Yesterdays FED minutes spooked the markets…just a bit…as they confirmed their hawkish interest rate policy into year end of into ’19. Here’s the bottom line; the FED will hike again in December. Thats a certainty, making it 9 straight rate hikes.
Read MoreGood Friday morning all, The markets lows are in place, for all of the reasons we’ve been covering here. The combination of incredibly strong US economic conditions, surging corporate earnings and seasonality investment factors tell us that we must be in this market.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Once the break through DJ 24,768 occurred, SkyNet like AI technical selling pressure kicked in. Know this; the selling pressure from the final 30 minutes was purely algo related. This is a structural problem in the markets thats been with us for some time…90% of all trades…
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. Hitting the most important bases this morning…clear signs that the velocity of the sell-off of the last 2 days (Dow Jones 1300 point loss) was algo driven with capitulation everywhere we look. This is not a crash. If it were, gold would be catching a serious bid, debt markets would be showing signs of panic…
Read MoreWe see no structurally negative issues in this market. We see a market that’s building energy, with powerful fund flows into US equities that continue to overwhelm would be sellers. The most pressing negative could be share buybacks, which are halted for companies soon to announce Q3 earnings (4–6 week blackout period).
Read MoreVRA Bottom Line: The US (Trump) invited China back for new round of negotiations. The invite from Trump allows China to save face, as they ultimately bend to Trumps will. Make no mistake…this is exactly what’s happening here. Chinas markets/economy have been hit HARD,
Read MoreToday marks 17 years since 9/11/01. Like most, I was in shock in the weeks/months that followed the attacks. Then I saw this picture, with an article signed by several hundred scientists that (engineers, architects) that raised serious doubts as to the official story…
Read MoreNo doubt, many of you played chess growing up. Many of the worlds best investors do. Chess and Risk, those were our games of choice. If you’ve never played a really good chess player, it’s most similar to playing a good poker player…you feel like they’re renting space in your head.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. This week’s surge higher in US stock prices was credited to Trumps trade deal with Mexico and as details begin to emerge, we’re learning just how serious Trump has been about “actual free trade” all along. We’ve covered this here often;…
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Bit of a pause in US markets yesterday, if you could even call it a pause. Once new all time highs are hit, some consolidation usually takes place. But I don’t expect this pause will last long.
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. Following a big (bullish) day higher yesterday…with solid market internals… here are my thoughts this morning. Buy the dip is evolving into “aggressively buy the dip” for US stocks. This bodes well for our markets as we finish the year out. Again, with just 36% bulls on AAII Sentiment Survey,
Read MoreGood Friday morning all, A heads up on the broad market and VRA System readings. Weakening internals could be pointing to short term market weakness. In mid-term years, August can be a shaky month, seasonally speaking.
Read MoreGDP came in at 4.1%, just a hair below consensus estimates but still the best quarterly GDP growth since 2014. Two things stand out as I read the report quickly; 1) exports added 1.06% to GDP, the highest amount since 2013 and nonresidential business investment grew by a big 7.3%, which should bode well for Q3 GDP.
Read MoreSecond quarter earnings are beating estimates, across the board. Roughly 9% of S&P 500 co’s have reported and something like 80% have topped analyst estimates. While this is not unusual, the following is; fewer than 5% of co’s that have reported have tamped down Q3 earnings estimates.
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"Kip's VRA financial newsletter is a MUST read for every saavy investor in this country. Disregard it at your own peril. His mantra is my mantra. Kip Herriage's newsletter is my financial Bible."
--Wayne Allyn Root
2008 Libertarian Vice Presidential candidate
Author, "The Conscience of a Libertarian"
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