VRA Investment Letter: What a Time to Be Alive. "The Big Bribe" Continues to Play Out. Another Significant Contrarian Set-up
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Good Friday morning. What a time to be alive. What a time to be an American.
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VRA Investment Update: Our "Big Bribe" Megatrends Are Playing Out. Fed Chair J Powell; A+. Our Bullish Case is Unchanged.
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Good Thursday morning. Just prior to publishing “The Big Bribe” in the fall of 2022 we went aggressively long the market, citing our primary base case;
We’re in the Roaring 2020’s, powered by consumers and US co’s in their strongest financial shape in decades…
Read MoreVRA Investment Letter: Semis Surge to Fresh ATH's. The Power of the Roaring 2020's. Investors Are Getting a Second Shot at a "Dot-com-like" Melt-up.
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Good Friday morning. As if right on cue, the semis and megacap tech stocks surged to ATH’s yesterday, in advance of Q4 tech earnings that kick off in earnest next week. When the semis (SMH), tech (XLK) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are hitting new ATH’s together they’re giving us a crystal-ball road-map for the broader markets.
Read MoreVRA Investment Letter: Parabolic Move Higher; Next Up. The "Stunning" Reality of US Economic Health. Angry Permabears at Remarkable Economic Strength.
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Good Thursday morning. Following the parabolic move higher in each major US equity index from the 10/27 lows…just as seasonality was turning bullish…on the VRA System we now have each index hitting extreme overbought levels, but importantly this is only on our shortest term momentum oscillators. Combined with the shockingly bullish technical signals that we’ve seen over the last 8 trading days it remains our view that important lows are in place and that pullbacks from here should continue to be bought (if we have pullbacks, that is).
Read MoreVRA Letter: The Fed is Done. Significant Inflection Points Have Arrived. A Bullish "Great Reset” with Seismic Shifts.
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Good Thursday morning. All eyes were on the Fed yesterday, as they delivered their latest interest rate decision. The Fed left the fed funds rate unchanged at 5.50% after its two-day meeting.
The Fed is Done
Read MoreVRA Investment Update: Put Buying is Back. High Yield Bonds Exhibiting Remarkable Strength. VRA Commodity Watch
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Good Thursday morning. Quick hitters this AM.
As Tyler covered in yesterday's VRA Investing Podcast, as seasonal weakness continues to weigh on stocks we’re already seeing a sharp rise in put/call ratios.
Read MoreVRA Investment Update: Disinflation is Here. Get Ready for 2% Inflation Next Year PLUS Fed Rate Cuts. How We Want to Play It.
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Good Thursday morning. July CPI (consumer prices) gained 3.2% on an annual basis, less than the 3.3% consensus from economists estimates. On a month-to-month basis, inflation increased just 0.2%, which was in-line with estimates while year/year CPI came in at 4.7%, matching estimates. The report also said real average weekly earnings were unchanged last month, in another positive sign that the Fed can be less concerned about a wage price spiral.
Read MoreVRA Letter: The DNA of Our New Bull Market. I'm Getting a 1995–2000 Vibe. Something Special This Way Comes.
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Do you believe in history repeating?
I’m Getting a 1995–2000 Vibe.
From 1995–2000, Nasdaq rose from 750 to 5132, soaring 584%. Over a 3 year time frame more than 500 companies went public that more than doubled on their first day of trading.
Read MoreVRA Investment Update: Textbook Bull Market Meets Overbought. Buy the Rumor, Sell the News?
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It hasn’t been straight up from the 10/13 bear market lows but in (most) ways this has been a textbook bull market move higher. From the overwhelming level of fear from 3 bear markets in 4 years to last years August — October waterfall mini-meltdown that culminated in the 10/13 bear market capitulation, from those lows the move higher has checked all of the “new bull market” boxes.
Read MoreVRA Investment Update: VRA System Buy Signals. Housing Breaks Out to New Highs.
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Good Friday morning. On Tuesday I wrote the following; “IMO, US markets are set up for a significant “short squeeze” higher. The combination of investor sentiment, seasonality, analytics and technicals are all aligned. This remains one of the best set-ups of my career, coming out of the bear market bottom on 10/13/22. We are well positioned for it.”
Read MoreVRA Investment Update: Sentiment Hitting 90th Percentile Bearish Readings. Analytics Say “Buy".
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Another volatile day of trading yesterday influenced by fears of global bank runs. Of note, in the last two trading sessions the smart money hour was met with strong buying pressure (with tech leading the way).
Read MoreVRA Investment Update: Key Markers Signifying the Birth of a New Bull Market. Semis Hated But Still Leading. Gold Miners Breaking Out.
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With 4 days of trading left in the first month of the new year the S&P 500 is up 5.2% with the tech heavy Nasdaq up a massive 9.3%. Should January finish higher it will complete the “bullish trifecta” for the Stock Trader Almanac, joining the Santa Claus rally and first 5 trading days of the new year in being up. When all 3 are higher it bodes exceptionally well for full year results.
Read MoreVRA Investment Update: Analytics Point to a January (and 2023) That Should Sizzle. VRA Big Year End Call!
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Good Friday morning all and hope you had a great Christmas. Welcome to the final trading day of 2022. We start today's trading with 3 days left in the Santa Claus rally (today and first 2 days of 2023) and roughly 1 month left for the January effect, where history tells us that small caps outperform big cap stocks by a sizable margin, with tax loss selling in small caps the culprit for their year-end weakness.
Read MoreVRA Investment Update: Shades of 12/2018. End The Fed. Stock Traders Almanac; Seasonally Bullish.
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J Powell came heavy Wednesday, raising rates as expected by .50%, but hawkish without question, targeting a peak rate of 5.1%. While the Fed broadly likes what they see regarding inflationary trends, their big concern is employment, specifically wage pressure/inflation. This is what has the equity markets concerned…will the Fed break something again…this time the jobs market.
Read MoreVRA Investment Update: Preparing for A Sharp Move Higher. Why the 200 Day Moving Average Matters So Much
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Good Thursday afternoon all. The markets look to be setting up for a catapult move higher into year end. The technicals are forming around the 200 dma (after a near parabolic move higher post the 10/13 capitulation into heavily overbought readings), in what looks to me to be a classic consolidation pattern in advance of both the santa claus rally and January effect bullish time frames.
Read MoreVRA Investment Update: Is This The Pivot?
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The short-covering move higher to start the week marked the best start to a 4th quarter since 1938. The move may have been fueled by short covering and the extreme oversold (on steroid) conditions that we’ve been pointing out.
Read MoreVRA Investment Update: FOMC Minutes, Dovish. Extreme Overbought, Patience. Housing, Still Powering the US Economy.
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Good Thursday afternoon all. The Fed minutes from the July meeting are out and, surprise surprise, they show a Fed with multiple members expressing concerns about tightening rates too much. Good. That means they are actually following the data,
Read MoreThe day has finally arrived...
/18 months ago, my oldest son Tyler and I set out on a labor of love. We knew it wouldn’t be easy. We figured there’d be people against us. We were right, the bannings from Twitter, Medium, PayPal and YouTube, etc proved it.
Read MoreVRA Investment Update: Second Quarter GDP Recession Confirmed
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Good Thursday morning all, Q2 GDP — Recession in the US Second quarter GDP just came in at a negative .9%, meaning back to back negative quarters and the technical definition of a recession. First, I owe Wayne Root a Las Vegas dinner.
Read MoreVRA Investment Update: Q2; JP Morgan Misses, Taiwan Semi Beats. Team Lockstep. "Quite Frankly" Interview.
/Good Thursday afternoon all. Yesterday's recovery move higher, on the backs of that horrendous CPI report, was intriguing. Yes, each index finished lower but “well” off of their lows as the semis actually finished up nearly 1% with internals that were only slightly negative.
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