Good Thursday morning. The Feds rate cutting cycle has arrived. Going against 90% of economists predictions…who predicted a .25% rate cut…J Powell and the Fed actually got this one right by cutting by .50%.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. After spending more than a year writing “The Big Bribe” Tyler and I published it just prior to the 10/13/22 bear market lows. We forecast a boom time in America, with the Roaring 2020’s as the theme.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. As I explained on my podcast yesterday, J Powell went off script at his presser and likely just made “another” policy mistake, which will be his 5th since taking the appointment to Fed Chair.
I repeat; J Powell is the worst Fed Chair of my time…
Read MoreGood Friday morning. As if right on cue, the semis and megacap tech stocks surged to ATH’s yesterday, in advance of Q4 tech earnings that kick off in earnest next week. When the semis (SMH), tech (XLK) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are hitting new ATH’s together they’re giving us a crystal-ball road-map for the broader markets.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. A bit of air is coming out of the tech melt-up move higher this AM, post earnings reports, as Netflix (-6%), VRA 10-bagger Tesla (-4%) and IBM (-2%) are each selling off this AM. The moves higher in each has been parabolic this year and with our markets trading at extreme overbought levels on the VRA System, a shake-out does not surprise. Nasdaq is -120 in premarket.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. So I’m working out this morning when Delta Airlines reported earnings…a record beating quarter for both revenue and earnings…which included the statement that they are ordering a massive number of new planes to keep up with soaring travel demand…
Read MoreDo you believe in history repeating?
I’m Getting a 1995–2000 Vibe.
From 1995–2000, Nasdaq rose from 750 to 5132, soaring 584%. Over a 3 year time frame more than 500 companies went public that more than doubled on their first day of trading.
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. VRA Quick hitters;
1) Weakness in European shares today as Deutsche Bank is down 15%, taking the European bank index down 5% on the day.
Read MoreAs our markets complete their overbought “pause”, we believe seasonality is playing a major role as the second half of February is historically weak. It’s actually one of the worst two weeks periods of the year.
But soon, our overbought sell-off will be behind us. Based on VRA System readings, by weeks end we should be hitting oversold levels that typically mark reversals higher, especially near the birth of new bull markets.
Good Thursday morning all. Another day, another "lower open” that was met with buying pressure throughout the day, leading to another strong smart money hour and resulting in (another) troubling pattern for the bears. And it’s not just that its happened every day so far this week, it’s been the repeating pattern of 2023. Add that market internals were right at 2:1 positive…again, another repeating pattern this year…combined with another day where we had more 52 week highs than lows, an event that has taken place every day so far this year.
Read MoreThe Jekyll and Hyde that is Fed Chair J Powell made another appearance yesterday, but instead of the ultra-hawisk Powell from the Jackson Hole Wyoming speech of last August (which crashed the markets) we got the sweetheart J Powell that, without question IMO, wanted to see stocks and bonds rise further still.
Read MoreWith 4 days of trading left in the first month of the new year the S&P 500 is up 5.2% with the tech heavy Nasdaq up a massive 9.3%. Should January finish higher it will complete the “bullish trifecta” for the Stock Trader Almanac, joining the Santa Claus rally and first 5 trading days of the new year in being up. When all 3 are higher it bodes exceptionally well for full year results.
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. From the 10/13/22 capitulation lows we’ve been witness to a textbook “new bull market”. It’s only just the beginning of a new bull market…one that should last years…just know that we have hit heavily overbought readings on the VRA Investing System (more on this later):
Read MoreGood Friday morning all and hope you had a great Christmas. Welcome to the final trading day of 2022. We start today's trading with 3 days left in the Santa Claus rally (today and first 2 days of 2023) and roughly 1 month left for the January effect, where history tells us that small caps outperform big cap stocks by a sizable margin, with tax loss selling in small caps the culprit for their year-end weakness.
Read MoreJ Powell came heavy Wednesday, raising rates as expected by .50%, but hawkish without question, targeting a peak rate of 5.1%. While the Fed broadly likes what they see regarding inflationary trends, their big concern is employment, specifically wage pressure/inflation. This is what has the equity markets concerned…will the Fed break something again…this time the jobs market.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. After solid back to back days our markets gave a bit of it back yesterday but we remain buyers into what we expect to be a solid move higher into the midterms and year end. Sentiment, seasonality and analytics are combining to make a strong case for a significant bear market rally.
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"Kip's VRA financial newsletter is a MUST read for every saavy investor in this country. Disregard it at your own peril. His mantra is my mantra. Kip Herriage's newsletter is my financial Bible."
--Wayne Allyn Root
2008 Libertarian Vice Presidential candidate
Author, "The Conscience of a Libertarian"
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