VRA Investment Letter: What a Time to Be Alive. "The Big Bribe" Continues to Play Out. Another Significant Contrarian Set-up
/Good Friday morning. Heads up; US markets are closed on Monday for Presidents Day and there will be no Letter or Podcast.
What a time to be alive. What a time to be an American. As Tyler covered on his podcast yesterday, it’s essentially impossible to keep up with the moves of the Trump Administrations first 3 weeks. 3 weeks! This is the Trump that we elected in 2016, and more. When Trump said it’s going to be a “Golden Age for America”, man…he wasn’t kidding.
And now, RFK Jr has been confirmed, with MAHA awaiting. Tulsi Gabbard, confirmed, which very hopefully will begin the process of helping to tear down the Deep State residing in our intelligence agencies. And of course Elon Musk, who is absolutely driving the left crazy as he exposes the fraud, waste and criminality of the Uniparty (D’s and R’s). The fact that RFK Jr., Gabbard and Musk were each Democrats (in the very recent past) is mind-blowing. Political labels no longer apply…the only label that matters now is “common sense” and “what’s in the best interest of Americans”. What a time to be an optimist.
In the introduction of our August 2022 book “The Big Bribe”, we wrote the following (pg 3). Yes, we are due two great decades!
With humility, “The Big Bribe” isn’t just holding up, it’s beginning to look like we wrote it with the help of a time machine. Each of our 5 Megatrends are playing out, which means if this pattern holds up, we’ve truly entered a generational bull market that will take the Dow Jones past 100,000 and Nasdaq past 40,000.
For our newer VRA members and as a reminder, here are our 5 Megatrends from August 2022…
“The Big Bribe” Megatrends
1) Financial engineering; it’s occurring at all levels (powered in part by AI); institutional/govt, corp America and consumers. Bitcoin and the blockchain is only the beginning.
2) Corporate earnings expansion, driven by the “Innovation Revolution”, which should eventually surpass the euphoria of the dotcom/tech boom cycle.
3) Long term housing boom, powered by consumers in their best financial shape in decades (regardless of the PSYOP of negativity in place designed to make us think otherwise). Housing drives “everything”.
4) The millennial generation. 72 million strong (now the largest segment of the population), in the process of inheriting >$70 trillion. Millennials love housing, stocks, cryptos with an understanding of technology that’s in their DNA…and they are born entrepreneurs.
5) The red-pilling of America and the return of animal spirits. We’re waking up to the dangers of communism and what we want, instead. Hugely bullish for our long term prosperity, even our survival as the last great democracy/republic standing.
VRA Bottom Line: Combined, these 5 Megatrends have the power to take the Dow Jones past 100,000 and Nasdaq past 40,000 (into 2030-ish) with massive wealth creation occurring throughout the economy (when we first wrote these words we were among the first to state that we are in the Roaring 2020’s). We repeat; now is the time to stay locked in…something special is in the process of playing out.
Market Update — “The Economists Agree” Has Produced Another Significant Contrarian Set-up.
This continues to be a remarkable set-up for stocks. Fear is rampant yet the markets are just a stones throw away from all time highs, with a record $7 trillion still in money markets. Fuel for the fire, and we’re nowhere near overbought levels, technically. This is the exact environment when big moves higher take place.
Our research this morning led us to something important. And it’s been staring us right in the face, the whole time.
Over my 40 years in the business, some of my biggest investment wins have come from betting against economists, especially when they’re all on one side of an issue. Folks, this is a smart money, slam dunk…take this to the bank….especially with Trump as president again.
It’s also a repeat from early 2021, when 100% of economists predicted a recession in the US. We told you then that we were taking the flip side, going aggressively long, and it paid off in spades. No recession occurred…and the markets had a big year.
I learned this from Ted Parsons, my first mentor. He would bet against mainstream economists and he would win. It was one of his favorite strategies. The groupthink of economists helped to insure that they would be wrong. We’ve seen this happen time after time after time….
Today, the overwhelming consensus suggests that more than 90% of economists believe tariffs are “inflationary”. We hear it 24/7 in the MSM.
And they do “sound” smart….
– A survey by the University of Chicago, mentioned in a BBC article from October 2024, indicated that only 2% of economists disagreed with the statement that imposing tariffs results in a substantial portion of the tariffs being borne by consumers through price increases, implying a strong consensus among economists that tariffs lead to higher prices, which is a form of inflation.
– Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics (like Paul Krugman) stated in an article from The Guardian (January 2025) that “virtually all economists think that the impact of the tariffs will be very bad for America and for the world,” including that they will “almost surely be inflationary.”
– The Peterson Institute for International Economics and other analyses consistently argue that tariffs increase consumer prices, thereby contributing to inflation. For instance, the Tax Foundation and UBS have also published analyses suggesting that tariffs, particularly when broad and high, could raise price levels significantly.
When more than 90% of economists agree on ANYTHING, Tyler and I are taking the flip side, regardless of what the issue is. Over my career, this approach has served me “quite well”. Thanks again Ted.
Trump 2.0 is full of the smartest people in the financial world. This is the most pro-business administration in history and they WILL solve Bidens and the Feds inflation problem.
It’s time for the Trump 2.0 bull market to accelerate.
Fox Business “Making Money”
Finally for today, on this week’s show with Charles Payne, we discussed several investments that we own in the VRA Portfolio. Check out my latest interview below.
Until next time, thanks again for reading…
Kip
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