VRA Investment Letter: Harris Implodes While Bret Baier Delivers. Market Leading Semis Surging. Nuclear, Fuel of the Future. Gold ATH.
/Good Thursday morning. With less than 3 weeks to go to the election our political coverage will likely ramp up. That’s the case this morning, following Harris’ interview last night with Fox’s Bret Baier. Harris had an opportunity to admit mistakes and take ownership of the Biden-Harris failures from the last 3.5 years, while explaining to voters what she stands for and how her admin would be different from Bidens. None of that happened. Instead, Harris came across as angry, shallow, unaccountable, dishonest and fully unprepared to assume the highest office in the land.
As a lifelong independent I vote for ideas and people over party. Last night’s interview with Harris was an unmitigated disaster and IMO independents (now the largest voting block in America) will go heavily for Trump in this election.
The latest tally from betting site Polymarket shows Trump with a 59.7% chance to win with Harris at 40.2%. Polymarket, and betting sites like it, take in real money and tend to give us a more accurate look at the outcome, certainly compared to flawed polling…which is typically heavily weighted with Dem voters…which is why polling organizations detest these sites. Election betting sites are just another form of the red-pilling of the US/world IMO, as pollsters have had their own ability to influence/rig elections for the State. Pollsters should start learning how to code.
Importantly, here are the betting odds from each of the swing states, where Trump has a commanding lead in 5/6 states (with Nevada tied).
Kudos to Baier, who had his A game (atoning a bit for his role in the 2020 rig, after calling Arizona for Biden EARLY in the night).
VRA Market Update — Market Leading Semis Surging
Breaking news this morning, as chip leader Taiwan Semi reported earnings, crushing estimates and dispelling rumors that chip growth is slowing on the back of ASML’s miss and “technical glitch” from Tuesday.
TSM is up 8% on the news. From TSM CEO; “The demand for AI is real and it’s just beginning”.
We remain aggressively long the semis.
Nuclear, Fuel of the Future & Why We Own URA (Global Uranium ETF); Uranium is having a renaissance moment, by Tyler Herriage
Good morning everyone, Tyler here with an important update on developments in nuclear energy and uranium.
A number of our US mega-cap tech names have just announced plans to go nuclear. This week, Amazon said it would finance the construction of several small nuclear reactors; Alphabet’s Google announced on Monday that it had made a deal to support the development and construction of several reactors.
The recent trend towards nuclear power was kicked off by Microsoft’s announcement that it will be working with Constellation Energy to restart the Three-Mile Island nuclear facility and that it will purchase the plant’s entire electric generating capacity over the next 20 years.
What is most interesting about Microsoft’s agreement is that they agreed to pay a 50% premium on the cost of that electricity just to lock in their rates.
So why would some of the world’s largest tech companies be willing to pay such a premium on energy?
To us, this means that large tech companies expect energy consumption to increase massively, and therefore, the cost of energy will increase as well.
Yes, we are still believers that Trump’s energy policies in his second term will bring down the costs of fossil fuels. However, the oil and gas industries can only do so much. Large tech companies depend on electricity to be not only abundant but also clean and reliable. No other energy source can meet those demands like nuclear energy. If Trump can also deregulate options for nuclear-powered operations and uranium mining, we could very well see the nuclear renaissance that sci-fi enthusiasts like myself have been dreaming about.
This is where things really get interesting for Uranium.
In just the last decade, energy usage has surged for completely new industries. From AI and data centers to electric vehicles to Bitcoin mining, there has been a consistent demand for more energy. From 2020 to 2023, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Google saw an 81% rise in electricity consumption.
While fossil fuel usage continues to increase, other energy sources like solar and wind, have failed to scale up with demand. Companies are now forced to look for alternatives.
For investors, this means a rare opportunity.
Currently, 92% of the uranium powering American reactors is imported from other countries. The U.S. Department of Energy just released a report that uranium production needs to expand by 34X over the next three decades, and this is just to power the United States. Outside of Bitcoin, this could be one of the greatest supply and demand stories of the 21st century.
Bitcoin and Gold Rallying
This week BTC broke $68,000 for the first time since June. As we’ve been covering, Bitcoin has entered its most bullish, post-halving seasonality. A move through $67,000 now makes our next target a fresh ATH ($73,700).
Following the previous 3 halvings:
2012: BTC rose 7900% in 1 year
2016: BTC rose 2900% in 18 months
2020: BTC rose 700% in 18 months
We are aggressively long BTC and/or ARKB. Our year end target remains $100k with a cycle high of $250k (2–4 years).
Gold just broke $2700, another ATH and up $20 this AM. Our next target is $3000 by year end with a cycle high of $5000 (2030). For more than two decades I’ve recommended investors save in gold. Financial planners attacked me for this recommendation, as “far too risky.”
You be the judge…from 2003;
$100,000 invested in money markets, compounding at 3%, after inflation, is worth just $64,000 today.
$100,000 invested in GOLD (from 2003) is worth >$700,000
Gold is the perfect vehicle for saving. The ultimate store of value, especially against global governments that print fiat currencies 24/7.
We are aggressively long physical gold, silver, and the miners. Each is a strong buy today.
Until next time, thanks again for reading…
Kip
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