Good Thursday morning. The Feds rate cutting cycle has arrived. Going against 90% of economists predictions…who predicted a .25% rate cut…J Powell and the Fed actually got this one right by cutting by .50%.
Read MoreCheck out Kip’s latest interview on The Root Reaction with Wayne Root.
As we see it, too many remain in the dark about the generational bull market underway, featuring soaring corporate earnings, led by consumers & companies in their best shape in decades.
Read MoreBreaking: Treasury yields lost momentum this AM, with stock markets reversing higher, after the Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims rose to 211K last week, up from 190K the week before and more than the 195K forecast by analysts. The 10-year yield sits at 3.96%, after trading above 4% before the data. The data indicates the labor market may be weakening (due to higher interest rates).
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Another day, another "lower open” that was met with buying pressure throughout the day, leading to another strong smart money hour and resulting in (another) troubling pattern for the bears. And it’s not just that its happened every day so far this week, it’s been the repeating pattern of 2023. Add that market internals were right at 2:1 positive…again, another repeating pattern this year…combined with another day where we had more 52 week highs than lows, an event that has taken place every day so far this year.
Read MoreGood Friday morning all and hope you had a great Christmas. Welcome to the final trading day of 2022. We start today's trading with 3 days left in the Santa Claus rally (today and first 2 days of 2023) and roughly 1 month left for the January effect, where history tells us that small caps outperform big cap stocks by a sizable margin, with tax loss selling in small caps the culprit for their year-end weakness.
Read MoreGood Thursday afternoon all. The Fed minutes from the July meeting are out and, surprise surprise, they show a Fed with multiple members expressing concerns about tightening rates too much. Good. That means they are actually following the data,
Read MoreGood Friday afternoon all. Before we get to the markets, which has both a crash scenario along with some of their most oversold levels we’ve ever seen, we’re beginning this morning with “Team Lockstep”. Here’s todays VRA VidCast covering this topic:
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Back to back excellent days, with strong smart money hours and market internals to match. In addition, tech/semis are leading the way, with seasonally bullish small caps charging higher. If you’re a market timer, these are the short term, heavily bullish signals you look for.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Yesterdays trading…actually the last 2 days of trading…have served as an important reminder that until we break the pattern of market sell-offs/pauses that’s been in place from March (once reaching extreme OB on VRA System momentum oscillators), we must continue to respect this pattern.
Read MoreGood Friday morning. The VRA was proud to be the sole sponsor of Wayne Allyn Roots remarkable interview with President Donald J. Trump. Wayne, a dear friend going back some 18 years and a true American Patriot, sat down with President Trump for an exclusive,
Read MoreVRA Market Update Our extreme overbought on steroids market finally took a breather this week, led lower by the semis (SMH down another -.9% today). The internals held up well but we would not be adding to new broad market positions here.
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. The November jobs report is out and it’s a mixed bag. Big miss on estimates, with just 245,000 jobs created vs estimate of 469,000 but the unemployment rate fell to 6.7%. Month to month, trying to make sense of any government statistic is a fools errand, but it's the trend that’s worrisome.
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. Octobers jobs report is out and its a good report. 638,000 jobs added…just a bit on the low side…with the unemployment rate falling to 6.9%, a big beat from the estimate of 7.6%, and a full percentage point lower from Septembers 7.9%. Dow futures were -200…
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Big day today. 3rd Quarter GDP came in at a blistering 33.1%, breaking every record known to man. Now we get to find out if its a “buy the rumor sell the news” event. And this is a huge day for earnings, with the biggest of big tech reporting (after the close).
Read MoreGood Friday morning. In this Special VRA Election Update we are focusing on market signals that may be pointing to either a Biden or a Trump win. Observing the action in the markets and key sectors, historically, global investing patterns…
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. We’re getting the overbought pullback that we’ve been discussing here this week. Yesterdays Internals were mixed to negative with no signs so far that this might get nasty but Dow futures are -330 this am.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Last nights debate was everything an informed voter would want to see. Pence and Harris able to give semi-lengthy answers about their positions, without interruption. As we did with the Trump-Biden debate, lets see what the leading debate polls had to say:
Read MoreFollowing another sharp move higher yesterday, our melt up move higher forecast continues. We're learning this morning that Mnuchin has raised his stimulus total offer to $1.7 trillion, including another round of $1200 checks and a further bump in PPP,
Read MoreCARES ACT Phase 4 Negotiations. Setting the Record Straight, With Thanks to Three Men. With congress back in session, negotiations are hot and heavy for Phase 4 of the CARES Act. I remain thunderstruck by the financial assistance that’s been provided to the American people…
Read More(From VRA Sunday Update to Clients)
Good Sunday afternoon. As US markets have now hit heavily/extreme overbought on VRA System readings, its time to prepare for what we expect will be a near term move lower. As you’ll read, it is our view that this bear market rally will soon end, with the possibility of a 40–50% decline from current levels over the next 1–2–3 years.
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"Kip's VRA financial newsletter is a MUST read for every saavy investor in this country. Disregard it at your own peril. His mantra is my mantra. Kip Herriage's newsletter is my financial Bible."
--Wayne Allyn Root
2008 Libertarian Vice Presidential candidate
Author, "The Conscience of a Libertarian"
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