Good Thursday morning. If you look up “wall of worry” in the dictionary you might just find a picture of the current set-up for our bull market...
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. The Feds rate cutting cycle has arrived. Going against 90% of economists predictions…who predicted a .25% rate cut…J Powell and the Fed actually got this one right by cutting by .50%.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. After crashing 13% on Monday, Japan’s Nikkei has gained back 90% of those losses in the last few days. After Monday’s selloff, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) reversed course on hiking rates, saying that “doing so in unstable markets is a mistake we will not make”.
Read MoreCheck out Kip’s latest interview on The Root Reaction with Wayne Root.
As we see it, too many remain in the dark about the generational bull market underway, featuring soaring corporate earnings, led by consumers & companies in their best shape in decades.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. It’s always great being on with Charles Payne. There aren’t many smart-money “talking heads”, but Charles is one of them. The reality is that the vast majority of media personalities know that “fear sells” so they pander to worst-case scenarios
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all.
This morning the Bank of England’s messaging made it clear that they will soon be cutting rates. The ECB is very close to that same decision. We expect both central banks to cut rates in June…
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. Just prior to publishing “The Big Bribe” in the fall of 2022 we went aggressively long the market, citing our primary base case;
We’re in the Roaring 2020’s, powered by consumers and US co’s in their strongest financial shape in decades…
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. We’ve dedicated much of the last week's VRA Letters to the “war risks” and corresponding action in the broad markets. We’re now just a few days away from Q1 tech earnings kicking off in style, with high profile names Tesla (next Tuesday), META (Wednesday) and Alphabet, Amazon, Intel and Microsoft set to report next Thursday. We see a great setup unfolding…
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. To start the week we barely had a day of (some) selling pressure in US equities and the same people that rarely (if ever) beat the markets are already warning of a severe market correction.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. These short term mini-pauses have done wonders for the overbought readings on our VRA Investing System. Today, even as our markets are just off of all-time highs, those overbought readings are gone. This market still has room to run.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. Long-time VRA Members may remember that from the end of the bear market (10/13/22) we’ve written often about the “action” of this market and the fact that it’s largely been “textbook bull market action”. We’ve seen this repeating pattern again this week, as the Nasdaq and Semis continue to rally into market closes finishing at/near their highs of the day.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. As I explained on my podcast yesterday, J Powell went off script at his presser and likely just made “another” policy mistake, which will be his 5th since taking the appointment to Fed Chair.
I repeat; J Powell is the worst Fed Chair of my time…
Read MoreGood Friday morning. As if right on cue, the semis and megacap tech stocks surged to ATH’s yesterday, in advance of Q4 tech earnings that kick off in earnest next week. When the semis (SMH), tech (XLK) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are hitting new ATH’s together they’re giving us a crystal-ball road-map for the broader markets.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. I’m scheduled to be on Fox Business with Charles Payne this coming Monday. I think that makes 8 appearances this year. Always an honor as Charles is one of the really good guys, with a remarkable background to boot.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. All eyes were on the Fed yesterday, as they delivered their latest interest rate decision. The Fed left the fed funds rate unchanged at 5.50% after its two-day meeting.
The Fed is Done
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. Third quarter GDP was reported this AM and showed blistering growth in the US economy of 4.9%, beating estimates of 4.5%. This is the strongest economic growth since Q4 2021 when growth was just shy of 7% (coronavirus insanity). Of note in the report, consumer spending rose 4% in Q3, soaring past Q2 consumer spending, which came in at just .8%.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. Quick hitters this AM.
As Tyler covered in yesterday's VRA Investing Podcast, as seasonal weakness continues to weigh on stocks we’re already seeing a sharp rise in put/call ratios.
Read MoreLast year, and well into 2023, you could throw a rock at 100 mainstream economists…grouped together like sardines…and not hit a single one that wasn’t predicting a recession (outside of Evercore’s Ed Hyman, that is). It was essentially unanimous; the US was headed into a recession and it was barreling towards us like a freight train.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. July CPI (consumer prices) gained 3.2% on an annual basis, less than the 3.3% consensus from economists estimates. On a month-to-month basis, inflation increased just 0.2%, which was in-line with estimates while year/year CPI came in at 4.7%, matching estimates. The report also said real average weekly earnings were unchanged last month, in another positive sign that the Fed can be less concerned about a wage price spiral.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. A bit of air is coming out of the tech melt-up move higher this AM, post earnings reports, as Netflix (-6%), VRA 10-bagger Tesla (-4%) and IBM (-2%) are each selling off this AM. The moves higher in each has been parabolic this year and with our markets trading at extreme overbought levels on the VRA System, a shake-out does not surprise. Nasdaq is -120 in premarket.
Read More
"Kip's VRA financial newsletter is a MUST read for every saavy investor in this country. Disregard it at your own peril. His mantra is my mantra. Kip Herriage's newsletter is my financial Bible."
--Wayne Allyn Root
2008 Libertarian Vice Presidential candidate
Author, "The Conscience of a Libertarian"
Powered by Squarespace.
