Good Thursday morning all. Overnight we learned that US-China trade talks are back on, with mid-level talks beginning this week and the big kahoonas confabbing next month. DJ +443 as I write. Global markets are also in rally mode on the heels of Hong Kong withdrawing plans to enforce their extradition bill,
Read MoreRoughly 3 hours after yesterdays (second) VRA Update, where we applied Occam’s razor and made our case that global bond markets are screaming at us “there’s not enough debt in the world…interest rates will keep plummeting until you issue more debt”, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin announced this:
Read MoreOver the last few days Tyler and I have fielded a ton of questions, from VRA Members, friends and family, about the 24/7 news coverage about “the coming recession” in the US. How could anyone miss it…the media would love nothing better than to topple Trump,
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. We’re in the dog days of summer. Low volume sell-offs, like yesterday, during one of the worst months of the year (August). Not even close to a big enough reason to sell. We’re also seeing classic signs of a reversal higher as the TRIN (short term trading index) closed at 3.65.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. To give you an idea of just how out of whack investor sentiment is, with US markets just 5% or so away from all time highs, check out last nights AAII Sentiment Survey reading. 21.7% bulls (down 16.8% on the week) with 48.2% bears (up 48.2% on the week).
Read MoreSome quick political/economic hitters to start the day… 1.) The last two nights of Dem debates…holy batshit crazy…what a circus. Judging solely from the feedback of long term moderate D’s, the left has gone completely off the rails. Until we see evidence to the contrary, the US remains a center-right country.
Read MoreWe are in the early innings of an economic boom. If you’ve been positive on the Trump economy these past 2.5 years you’ve no doubt been called every name in the book. My favorite is when permabear trolls call me a racist bigot Russian puppet…all because I am bullish on the US economy…
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. The June jobs report is in and the number is a big beat. 224,000 jobs created with only minor revisions lower over the last 2 months. The bears will tell us that this should send stocks lower, as it removes the odds of a rate cut later this month. Ignore the bears…keep buying our VRA Portfolio buy recs.
Read MoreAll eyes are on the G20 and Presidents Trump/Xi meeting on Saturday. Earlier this week, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin stated that “we’re 90% of the way there”. I wished he had said nothing of the sort. Our view is unchanged. We’ll be surprised if a trade deal is completed…
Read MoreFollowing Wednesday’s Fed meeting, where J Powell finally admitted that the Fed got 2018 completely and terribly wrong, US equity markets are celebrating the Fed’s apology this morning. DJ +230 with precious metals and the miners breaking out across the board.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all, The move higher in stocks continues on the heels of the best week in ’19 and news of Mexico immigration/trade deal. Next up, G20 and Trump-Xi meeting, June 28–29. Does a US-China trade deal even matter? Not according to this new study…
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. The last 17 months have been one big, semi-expanding bullish trading range We see it in this chart of the S&P 500, from the January 2018 highs to today. The S&P 500 is now below its 2018 highs, and while we have continued to make higher highs (post 1/18), there has been no breakout.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Our major U.S. indexes opened lower this morning as the U.S. administration is applying maximum pressure on China via attempts (along with US allies) to essentially shut Huawei down. Huawei is huge. As the largest telecommunications manufacturer on the planet…
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. A staple of the strongest bull markets of my career have been their ability to overcome all obstacles as they continue hitting new highs. In Wall Street lingo it’s called “climbing a wall of worry”. Powerful bull markets feed off of fear and worry.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. All eyes are on US-China trade talks in DC, where Trump has announced that beginning Friday, tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports will rise from 10% to 25%. Frankly, this amount is not a big concern.
Read MoreGood Friday Morning all, Tyler Herriage here with you for today’s update. After a slow last 2–3 sessions, the markets are positive as we received the closely watched Labor Department’s monthly employment report this morning, which came in with a blowout number.
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. Permabear after permabear, Trump hater after Trump hater, has been predicting a recession in the US. At minimum, they’ve predicted an “earnings recession”, where corporate earnings decline. Bloomberg even said this morning…
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. A solid reversal higher yesterday, even in light of our extreme overbought conditions. VRA Market Internals moved back into solid territory, though not as solid as the negative readings that we saw on Tuesday.
Still, 10/12 VRA Investing System screens remain bullish. This still looks to be a pause…
Read MoreIf you’ve been here for any length of time at all you know we have been, and continue to be bullish…on the US economy, global economy, and most certainly US stocks. I know no other way to say this but to say it as loudly as possible: EVERY FIBER OF MY DNA IS TELLING ME THAT A MONSTER MOVE HIGHER IS DIRECTLY AHEAD.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Wayne Gretzky said it best; “a good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be”. As active investors, we want to crush Mr. Market. We have a strong desire to build our investment portfolios for a fully funded retirement account.
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"Kip's VRA financial newsletter is a MUST read for every saavy investor in this country. Disregard it at your own peril. His mantra is my mantra. Kip Herriage's newsletter is my financial Bible."
--Wayne Allyn Root
2008 Libertarian Vice Presidential candidate
Author, "The Conscience of a Libertarian"
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