June Jobs Report, Big Beat. VRA Portfolio Update, +31%. VRA, Highly Recommended Reads.
/Good Friday morning all. The June jobs report is in and the number is a big beat. 224,000 jobs created with only minor revisions lower over the last 2 months. The bears will tell us that this should send stocks lower, as it removes the odds of a rate cut later this month. Ignore the bears…keep buying our VRA Portfolio buy recs. Rates have already been slashed…free markets figured this out long ago.
Bit of a different update today, once a quarter we feature some of our most important research to help ensure we are on the same page.
First up, if you aren’t joining us for our daily VRA Investing Podcasts, why not? It takes 30 seconds to sign up at vrainsider.com/podcast to receive our daily reminders once the podcast is published. After talking me into doing it, we’ve just completed our first year with several hundred listeners each day.
In 5–10 minutes we walk you through what happened in the markets, and more importantly, we tell you what the VRA Investing System is forecasting, going forward. Here’s an email we received this week:
“Thank you for your podcasts. Just signed up with VRA after listening for the last 6 months or so. You’ve been more right than anyone. The VRA has a crystal ball. Joe C.”
Thank you Joe and great having you with us!
VRA PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Here are our results for 2019 (through Wednesday). +31.36% vs 19.7% for S&P 500. Each position remains a buy…working on VRA growth stock 10 bagger updates this weekend. Check out our 14-day free trial to see our exact positions.
STUNNING ANALYTICS
With thanks to Troy Bombardia, check out this piece of analytics. We’ll get into more going forward, no doubt, but when the Nasdaq does what it just did, the avg move higher is 34.99% over the next year, with 100% bullish outcomes. Holy bull market batman.
INVESTOR SENTIMENT UPDATE: AAII SURVEY
For our newer VRA Members…but a good refresher for everyone…below are VRA Updates from 3/29/19 and 2/12/19. These contain our fundamental macro views for being bullish, which have only been cemented further since first publishing. Save and file these away…revisit often…crush Mr. Market.
VRA Update: We Are Not Uncertain. Strap in. DJ 50,000 Here We Come.
Mar 29, 2019
Good Friday morning all. If you’ve been here for any length of time at all you know we have been, and continue to be bullish…on the US economy, global economy, and most certainly US stocks.
I know no other way to say this but to say it as loudly as possible:
EVERY FIBER OF MY DNA IS TELLING ME THAT A MONSTER MOVE HIGHER IS DIRECTLY AHEAD.
Apologies for the screaming…but as Tyler and I discussed at length yesterday, our job is to make you money. We believe you need to know exactly how strongly we feel about this.
I helped pay my way through college betting on sports. Sports betting just always made sense to me. If you’re like me, when you get that “DNA level lock” you know that you go heavy. Stone cold locks don’t come around often…when they do, over time you learn to trust your instincts and go big. It was a surprise to no one that I found my way to Wall Street.
Know this; Today, I not uncertain. Fortunes are about to be made for the smart money investor. It’s time to be locked and loaded. The VRA is about to get much more active…much more aggressive.
This market feels very much like 1998 to me. I remember it well. The DJ had just dropped 17% to 7500. We then had a yield curve inversion, just like today. Recession fears were high.
But the economists got it wrong…again. Economic growth came roaring back. Growth kicked in. And the IPO market began to get red hot. Investors (the public) came flooding back into stocks.
Over the next two years, the DJ spiked 54%. As dotcom mania kicked in, the Nasdaq would soar 3 x that amount.
In the event that trusting my instincts is not good enough for you (your mistake), let me add the following macro points:
1) When I first became a broker (1985), Reagans tax cuts were just kicking in fully. The DJ would more than double in less than 3 years. Sound familiar? Trumps tax reform, deregualtion and pro business optimism is about to have an even more positive impact.
2) Populism/nationalism is replacing globalism. It’s taking place all over the world. Few seem to understand how wildly bullish this is going to be for the global economy. But I do. 3 decades of the failure that is globalism, dying a slow death. Good riddance.
3) Trump has called China out on their economic criminality for at least 15 years. Google it…there's ample video evidence of Trump saying exactly what he's been saying, a position that played a major role in winning the election. Today, Trump is closing in on “actual” free trade with China and the world. Gone will be bogus trade tariffs. Tariffs that favored the rest of the world over the US. Wildly bullish for the US economy.
4) Investor sentiment. As we cover here often, the public has a great disdain for the stock market. Who could blame them. First the dotbom, then the great financial crisis, then this past December, the worst since the Great Depression.
But folks, bull markets do not end when the public hates stocks. Bull markets end in a euphoric bubble. Bull markets end when everyone and their mother believes that stocks cannot go lower.
We’re nowhere near this level today…but we’ll get there. Its the very psychology of human nature and the markets.
Make sure and take a few minutes to listen to Tyler’s podcast from yesterday. At 27, he has a great feel for the markets. You’ll hear evidence of our bullishness.
https://soundcloud.com/user-640389393/vra-podcast-tyler-herriage-daily-investing-podcast-mar-28-2019
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Make sure and log in to your VRA Members Site regularly to ensure you are positioned correctly. we only recommend 10–12 stocks at a time. We want a highly focused portfolio, especially for the melt-up that we see directly ahead.
Make sure you are locked and loaded. We’ll guide you every step of the way. Dow Jones 50,000 + here we come. We are not uncertain. Stay Frosty.
VRA Update: The Death of Globalism. The Birth of the Global Super Bull Market. Game On.
February 12, 2019
Good Tuesday morning all. Following the 2016 election of the man, the myth, the legend…one Donald J Trump…the world has watched in envy as the US economy and US stock markets have soared higher in response. Autocrats and bureaucrats the world over…socialists all…are being jolted from their deep slumber. The wake up call must be deafening, Ms Merkel and Mr. Macron.
Globalism is dying. The European Union is dying. Nationalism/populism is slowly taking over, everywhere we look. The end result will be the birth of a global, super bull market. A worldwide melt-up of wealth creation, birthed in the powers of free market capitalism. Birthed in the power of the individual, rather than the collective. Mises vs Keynes. The epic economic battle to the death.
Of course, we’re already awash in socialism. It’s everywhere we look, even here in the US. From the early days of Woodrow Wilson to FDR, with $22 trillion in govt debt, our ship may already be sunk.
But we never stop the good fight. Here’s what that fight looks like, globally. Folks, positive events are occurring!
1) As nationalism/populism continues to win out, smaller governments will become the norm. Adios EU. Adios state sponsored socialism. Adios nanny state.
2) The days of manufactured and manipulated economic growth will come to an end. With the US leading the way, true/pure global competition will reign supreme. HUGELY bullish.
3) Countries will be forced to slash personal and corporate tax rates, in order to compete with lower tax global regimes (aka the US and China).
4) Barriers to entry will be slashed. Tariffs and trade restrictions will be forced to near zero in the years to come. Trumps “trade war” with China is a direct shot across the bow at global governments everywhere.
5) Deregulation will sweep the global landscape. Nanny states across the planet are being put on notice. If you wish to provide cradle to the grave services, your debt loads will become unmanageable. Your interest rates will soar. Your economies will crumble in a fiery death spiral.
This is the Trump doctrine. This is how Trump forces his will on the global economy.
While global economies now border on recession, with 2018 stock market losses of 25–50% +, our own economy continues to lift off spectacularly, regardless of the wrong-way forecasts from low IQ economists like Paul Krugman (Mr. fax machine himself).
Here at the VRA we’re big fans of tracking relative strength between asset classes and markets/sectors. To get a direct glimpse of the death of globalism, check out the most dominant economy in Europe (Germany) compared to the US (S&P 500) over the last 2 years.
What we see below is spectacular outperformance of the US to Germany. In fact, 38% outperformance. Think the German people like seeing their investment accounts collapse for 2 straight years??
US economic growth is even more remarkable when you consider the fact that our central bank has hiked rates 9 times since December 2016, while Europe and Asia remain in the 0% to negative interest rates.
This is why foreign capital continues to flood into the US. We not only have the power to normalize rates, but we can grow our GDP by 3% + at the same time. Rock and roll. Just getting started. 35,000 DJ by end of 2020. 50,000 DJ by end of Trump's second term.
We’ll continue to revisit this theme often. The developed world has a choice to make. Kill globalism off for good or watch your economies continue to get their ass kicked by the good ole US of A. The world has 6 more years of Trump to deal with. And this man enjoys kicking ass a great deal.
Self-preservation usually wins out. It’s their call…their decision to make. We’re watching closely. Your people are watching even more closely.
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TO WRAP IT ALL UP
Since publishing these pieces our bullish views have only become stronger. Will this be the bull market of our lifetimes, as we continue to suspect? Only time will tell, but here’s what I believe I can tell you with certainty…until fund managers and the public become wildly bullish on the markets, this market will continue sharply higher. Yes…negative investor sentiment of today is the fuel for this powerful bull to continue.
Until next time, thanks again for reading…have a great weekend
Kip
Since 2014 the VRA Portfolio has net profits of more than 2300% and we have beaten the S&P 500 in 15/16 years.
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