Our Bull Market Completely Intact. European Elections Confirming a Primary Bullish VRA Marco Trend.
/Good Thursday morning all.
The last 17 months have been one big, semi-expanding bullish trading range We see it in this chart of the S&P 500, from the January 2018 highs to today. The S&P 500 is now below its 2018 highs, and while we have continued to make higher highs (post 1/18), there has been no breakout. The biggie, of course, is the monster (Federal Reserve initiated) sell-off in Q4 of last year. As we start trading today, SPX is above its 200 dma (having successfully bounced off the 200 dma), as is Nasdaq, with the DJ barely beneath its 200 dma. We have also reached “extreme oversold” levels on the VRA Investing System.
We believe yesterday may have marked important lows. Put/call ratio of 1.4 with a TRIN above 2…sentiment hitting panic levels as fear-based “impeachment” selling pressure hit the markets. Importantly, however, that panic selling marked yesterdays lows as the DJ rallied 150 points off of the lows in the all-important smart money final hour of trading. Folks, and hear me on this, the odds of an impeachment proceeding against Trump is incalculably low. Should Dems move forward, it will be their official acknowledgment that they know they cannot win the presidency without a Hail Mary against Trump. Going forward, when you see the markets fall on rumors of impeachment, use that sell-off as a buying opportunity.
Based on the VRA System as long as the Leading Economic Indicators are positive, we have little reason to be concerned about the economy. Again, we sit at 9/12 screens positive.
European Elections Confirm Globalism in Decline
More than decline really…the abject failure that is globalism is being routed. The long list below of recently elected populist/nationalist leaders makes a primary (bullish) macro point of the VRA’s crystal clear; Globalism, for 3 decades, has been great for countries like China and for the failed experiment to benefit the elites and open borders big business advocates that is the European Union. But today, the global economy is (powerfully) transitioning back to populism, as the public elects leaders that have their own country's best interests at heart.
For more than 3 years, this has been a primary bullish macro theme of the VRA. As countries transition away from manipulated globalism, the global bull market…which is well underway today…will continue to pick up steam, bringing with it what may well be a multi-decade era of peace and prosperity.
>90% of the worlds largest and most important equity markets are in “bull market confirmed status”. Imagine what our stock markets will do when global trade deals are fully implemented. Lower tariffs, true free trade, let the best company/country win. Hugely bullish macro trend.
VRA Market and System Bottom line: the global bull market is absolutely intact. We’ve had a modest 5–6% correction off of all-time highs. This is a buying opp in advance of the next advance to new ATH, which includes meeting our targets of DJ 35,000 by the end of 2020 and DJ 50,000+ by end of Trump's second term. The VRA System remains at 9/12 screens bullish.
Look at it this way; What’s the biggest concern that investors have today? Without question, it's US-China trade worries. Now, what is second? What…can't think of a second issue that has your really worried?
Wall Street’s best can’t either. We’ll continue to use dips to add to VRA Buy Rec positions.
Until next time, thanks again for reading…
Kip
Since 2014 the VRA Portfolio has net profits of more than 2300% and we have beaten the S&P 500 in 15/16 years.
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