Good Friday morning. Yes, some of our leading indexes/sectors reached (short term only) overbought levels this week, and yes, seasonality is not great for this stretch of February, but we repeat; this is not a market that we want to be anything other than “long”
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. Heads up; I’m scheduled to be on Fox Business with Charles Paynes “Making Money” in the 2PM EST hour. Hope you can join!
This remains “that” bull market. The bull market that surpasses the 1995–2000 dot-com melt-up, except this move higher
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. Heads up; I’ll be on Wayne Allyn Roots new hit show on Frank Speech (Frank Network) tonight at 7:30 PM EST. Wayne, as many/most reading this know...
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. Just prior to publishing “The Big Bribe” in the fall of 2022 we went aggressively long the market, citing our primary base case;
We’re in the Roaring 2020’s, powered by consumers and US co’s in their strongest financial shape in decades…
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. We’ve dedicated much of the last week's VRA Letters to the “war risks” and corresponding action in the broad markets. We’re now just a few days away from Q1 tech earnings kicking off in style, with high profile names Tesla (next Tuesday), META (Wednesday) and Alphabet, Amazon, Intel and Microsoft set to report next Thursday. We see a great setup unfolding…
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. These short term mini-pauses have done wonders for the overbought readings on our VRA Investing System. Today, even as our markets are just off of all-time highs, those overbought readings are gone. This market still has room to run.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. Long-time VRA Members may remember that from the end of the bear market (10/13/22) we’ve written often about the “action” of this market and the fact that it’s largely been “textbook bull market action”. We’ve seen this repeating pattern again this week, as the Nasdaq and Semis continue to rally into market closes finishing at/near their highs of the day.
Read MoreGood Friday morning. As if right on cue, the semis and megacap tech stocks surged to ATH’s yesterday, in advance of Q4 tech earnings that kick off in earnest next week. When the semis (SMH), tech (XLK) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are hitting new ATH’s together they’re giving us a crystal-ball road-map for the broader markets.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. Following what has been a near-parabolic move higher from the 10/27 lows, strength in the semiconductors has now led to key breakouts for the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Housing stocks, negating what had bears believed was a picture-perfect short for these indices at resistance
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. This morning's CPI report came in slightly above estimates with September prices paid for consumers rising .04% month/month vs estimates of .03%. Year over year, core CPI came in at 4.1% vs estimates of 4.1%.
Read MoreGood Friday morning. The worst week of the year for US equity markets ends today, punctuated by this week’s FOMC meeting/statement and J Powell presser, which…once again…led to a steep sell-off in stocks…Powell’s specialty.
Read MoreLast year, and well into 2023, you could throw a rock at 100 mainstream economists…grouped together like sardines…and not hit a single one that wasn’t predicting a recession (outside of Evercore’s Ed Hyman, that is). It was essentially unanimous; the US was headed into a recession and it was barreling towards us like a freight train.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. A bit of air is coming out of the tech melt-up move higher this AM, post earnings reports, as Netflix (-6%), VRA 10-bagger Tesla (-4%) and IBM (-2%) are each selling off this AM. The moves higher in each has been parabolic this year and with our markets trading at extreme overbought levels on the VRA System, a shake-out does not surprise. Nasdaq is -120 in premarket.
Read MoreAs we head into the final two trading days of June, in advance of both a new month and quarter, we expect to see significant fund flows into stocks from retirement funds, pensions, share buybacks, etc. The investing public is beginning to come back into stocks, as are institutional investors…
Read MoreWe started the week with each US broad market index trading at (or “very" near) our most overbought designation on the VRA Investing System; “extreme overbought on steroids”…
Read MoreDo you believe in history repeating?
I’m Getting a 1995–2000 Vibe.
From 1995–2000, Nasdaq rose from 750 to 5132, soaring 584%. Over a 3 year time frame more than 500 companies went public that more than doubled on their first day of trading.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. Charles Payne of Fox Business had me back on his show ‘Making Money’ yesterday and the events surrounding it were interesting. Here’s how it works: First, one of Charles producers emails you a day or two before and ask if you’re available for the show. Second, they ask you to send over your latest “hit” (VRA Letter). I’m assuming they do this so they can see whether or not what you’re saying is interesting and/or worthy of being on air. Third, they let you know whether or not you’re officially invited onto the show.
Read MoreIt hasn’t been straight up from the 10/13 bear market lows but in (most) ways this has been a textbook bull market move higher. From the overwhelming level of fear from 3 bear markets in 4 years to last years August — October waterfall mini-meltdown that culminated in the 10/13 bear market capitulation, from those lows the move higher has checked all of the “new bull market” boxes.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. In Tuesdays Letter I wrote the following…
“J Powell is the most unpredictable Fed Chair of our times and the root of his unpredictability lies in the fact that he desperately wants to be taken seriously. Powell is highly unpredictable. That’s a dangerous trait in a Fed Chair.
Read MoreBreaking; we just learned that the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge (core PCE) fell to 4.2% in March from 5.1% in February. This marks 8 straight months that we’ve had “disinflation”. With both US and European GDP reports coming in weak, we reiterate our call for the Fed to cease rate hikes and to begin cutting rates. The 10 year yield is 3.44% this AM while the Fed funds rate is 5%. The Fed never leads, they only follow. The markets are screaming at the Fed to “pause and pivot”.
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"Kip's VRA financial newsletter is a MUST read for every saavy investor in this country. Disregard it at your own peril. His mantra is my mantra. Kip Herriage's newsletter is my financial Bible."
--Wayne Allyn Root
2008 Libertarian Vice Presidential candidate
Author, "The Conscience of a Libertarian"
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