Good Thursday morning all. Bull markets love climbing a wall of worry. Bull markets actually perform better when the fear seems greatest, another testament to the power of (contrarian) sentiment as market mover. Our current bricks in the wall? Trumps impeachment trial in the senate started this week…
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Impeachment headed to senate…no one seems to care…as it should be. US-China phase 1 trade deal…no one seems to care…that’s a major mistake in our view. To understand just how big of an accomplishment…
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. December's employment data came in with 145,000 jobs created (slight miss) and unemployment rate of 3.5% (50 yr low). The Trump Economic Miracle continues. If you’ve been with us over the last 2–3 years you know we’ve been ultra bullish on the US economy…
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Yesterday President Trump was impeached in the House. Regardless of how right or wrong it may be, get ready for non-stop never-Trump MSM coverage and political ads with “Trump is only the 2nd president in modern times to be impeached”.
Read MoreGood Thursday afternoon all. For today’s update, we want to get into PM’s and miners. PRECIOUS METALS AND MINERS For our newer VRA Readers, a quick trip down memory lane. In our second ever VRA Update (2003) we recommended gold and silver,
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. The wall of worry is building. Cracks in the market are appearing. While our VRA Investing System remains at 10/12 screens bullish (Don’t fight the tape, Don’t fight the Fed), with a global economy that is in solid shape,
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. An important (early) heads up. While we remain very bullish, medium to LT, there’s a scenario that we believe is becoming increasingly likely….we’ll be surprised if the markets like it much. The House is going to impeach Trump. There’s almost no scenario at this point where they do not.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. As expected, the FED cut rates by .25% to a range of 1.5% — 1.75%. For us, it’s increasingly hard to take Powell and his merry band of FED Governors seriously. On the one hand, they just told us that the rate cut was motivated (in part) by “negative global developments”…
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. With 10/12 VRA Investing System Screens bullish and with investors (of all sizes) heavy in cash and heavily bearish, we are gearing up for a major breakout to the upside. If you’re new here, a quick recap. First: We’ve beaten the markets in 15/16 years of the VRA.
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. “It’s not the news of the day that matters, its how the market reacts to the news”. Ted Parsons, circa 1987 (RIP Ted). Ted was my first mentor. As a newbie broker, my cubicle was just outside of his office. Ted was well into his 60’s then. He’d been around the block.
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. Getting a very late start in writing. Updates from mgt on both Cara (CARA) and Vista Gold (VGZ) this AM. First, the September jobs report is out and pretty much in line with expectations. 136,000 jobs created with the unemployment rate down to 3.5%, a 50 year low.
Read MoreGood Friday afternoon all, Tyler here with you for today’s update. As Kip mentioned in yesterday’s update the VRA Investing System has been downgraded from 10/12 screens bullish to 9/12 screens bullish. We have been at 10/12 screens bullish since June 19th,
Read MoreFed Meeting, Powell Getting Better! 1/4 point rate cut and presser behind us. All pretty much as expected. Fed Chair Powell did ok. The trading action during and just after the Fed presser is typically sporadic and not always easy to trust. Here’s what we do know; the cut has now taken place.
Read MoreGood Wednesday morning all. I have posted this VRA Update (updated with new information/facts) every 9/11 since 2006. Today marks 18 years since 9/11/01. Like most, I was in shock in the weeks/months that followed the attacks.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Overnight we learned that US-China trade talks are back on, with mid-level talks beginning this week and the big kahoonas confabbing next month. DJ +443 as I write. Global markets are also in rally mode on the heels of Hong Kong withdrawing plans to enforce their extradition bill,
Read MoreRoughly 3 hours after yesterdays (second) VRA Update, where we applied Occam’s razor and made our case that global bond markets are screaming at us “there’s not enough debt in the world…interest rates will keep plummeting until you issue more debt”, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin announced this:
Read MoreOver the last few days Tyler and I have fielded a ton of questions, from VRA Members, friends and family, about the 24/7 news coverage about “the coming recession” in the US. How could anyone miss it…the media would love nothing better than to topple Trump,
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. We’re in the dog days of summer. Low volume sell-offs, like yesterday, during one of the worst months of the year (August). Not even close to a big enough reason to sell. We’re also seeing classic signs of a reversal higher as the TRIN (short term trading index) closed at 3.65.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. To give you an idea of just how out of whack investor sentiment is, with US markets just 5% or so away from all time highs, check out last nights AAII Sentiment Survey reading. 21.7% bulls (down 16.8% on the week) with 48.2% bears (up 48.2% on the week).
Read MoreSome quick political/economic hitters to start the day… 1.) The last two nights of Dem debates…holy batshit crazy…what a circus. Judging solely from the feedback of long term moderate D’s, the left has gone completely off the rails. Until we see evidence to the contrary, the US remains a center-right country.
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"Kip's VRA financial newsletter is a MUST read for every saavy investor in this country. Disregard it at your own peril. His mantra is my mantra. Kip Herriage's newsletter is my financial Bible."
--Wayne Allyn Root
2008 Libertarian Vice Presidential candidate
Author, "The Conscience of a Libertarian"
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