Good Thursday morning. As I explained on my podcast yesterday, J Powell went off script at his presser and likely just made “another” policy mistake, which will be his 5th since taking the appointment to Fed Chair.
I repeat; J Powell is the worst Fed Chair of my time…
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. Charles Payne of Fox Business had me back on his show ‘Making Money’ yesterday and the events surrounding it were interesting. Here’s how it works: First, one of Charles producers emails you a day or two before and ask if you’re available for the show. Second, they ask you to send over your latest “hit” (VRA Letter). I’m assuming they do this so they can see whether or not what you’re saying is interesting and/or worthy of being on air. Third, they let you know whether or not you’re officially invited onto the show.
Read MoreBreaking; we just learned that the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge (core PCE) fell to 4.2% in March from 5.1% in February. This marks 8 straight months that we’ve had “disinflation”. With both US and European GDP reports coming in weak, we reiterate our call for the Fed to cease rate hikes and to begin cutting rates. The 10 year yield is 3.44% this AM while the Fed funds rate is 5%. The Fed never leads, they only follow. The markets are screaming at the Fed to “pause and pivot”.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. A major investing theme, as taught to me in my 20’s by both of my mentors (Ted Parsons and Mike Metz, RIP gentlemen) goes like this;
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Another day, another "lower open” that was met with buying pressure throughout the day, leading to another strong smart money hour and resulting in (another) troubling pattern for the bears. And it’s not just that its happened every day so far this week, it’s been the repeating pattern of 2023. Add that market internals were right at 2:1 positive…again, another repeating pattern this year…combined with another day where we had more 52 week highs than lows, an event that has taken place every day so far this year.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. From the 10/13 capitulation lows it’s been our view that the equity markets have bottomed and that rates, the US dollar and inflation have all peaked. The action in semis/tech and housing have solidified our views. When the most important market/economic elements of the VRA Investing System… are leading the markets higher…
Read MoreGood Friday morning all and hope you had a great Christmas. Welcome to the final trading day of 2022. We start today's trading with 3 days left in the Santa Claus rally (today and first 2 days of 2023) and roughly 1 month left for the January effect, where history tells us that small caps outperform big cap stocks by a sizable margin, with tax loss selling in small caps the culprit for their year-end weakness.
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. “Shock and awe” might be the best way to describe the short covering melt-up yesterday as stocks had their best day since the end of coronavirus insanity.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. If you were as confused as 99% of Wall Street and the English speaking people of the world were by Fed Chair J Powells presser yesterday, where he reverted to previous form and crushed the stock market, I encourage you to listen to Tylers podcast from yesterday afternoon:
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. As we’ve covered over the last year, the current bear market…the 3rd in 4 years…actually started in February 2021. That’s when groups such as SPACs, meme stocks, China, biotechnology, etc hit a top and started to decline.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. After solid back to back days our markets gave a bit of it back yesterday but we remain buyers into what we expect to be a solid move higher into the midterms and year end. Sentiment, seasonality and analytics are combining to make a strong case for a significant bear market rally.
Read MoreThe short-covering move higher to start the week marked the best start to a 4th quarter since 1938. The move may have been fueled by short covering and the extreme oversold (on steroid) conditions that we’ve been pointing out.
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. After Wednesday’s 2–3% ramp higher (S&P 500, Nasdaq, R2K) it sure felt like the lows were in as we had a 90% up-volume day in NYSE with 7:1 advance/decline and as S&P 500 put in an outside day (technical buy signal).
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Following last Friday's jobs report the markets moved sharply higher, only to give up all of its gains and then close lower by 1% across the board on concerns that Russia would cut off European gas supplies (which happened).
Read More18 months ago, my oldest son Tyler and I set out on a labor of love. We knew it wouldn’t be easy. We figured there’d be people against us. We were right, the bannings from Twitter, Medium, PayPal and YouTube, etc proved it.
Read MoreGood Thursday afternoon all. Yesterday's recovery move higher, on the backs of that horrendous CPI report, was intriguing. Yes, each index finished lower but “well” off of their lows as the semis actually finished up nearly 1% with internals that were only slightly negative.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Tuesdays afternoon comeback was impressive (coming off of a near no-bid open…real fear) led by Nasdaq’s 400 point swing higher, and we got a glimpse of that yesterday as the Dow went from -150 to +220 in less than an hour, marking back-to-back afternoon reversals higher.
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. It’s been a solid week for the markets, one that we believe is setting the stage for a strong move into end of month and possibly a mirror image of the first half of 2022. The economy is slowing, inflation is peaking, yields are topping and investors are too bearish.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. As Tyler covered in detail on yesterdays VRA Investing Podcast (sign up for alerts @ vrainsider.com/podcast), something interesting could be brewing to restore our (short term) faith in the markets. Even as Nasdaq (-1.2%), on the back of the Netflix implosion was hit yesterday the internals actually showed improvement.
Read MoreEven as countries all over the world adopted elements of fascism (most all but Sweden, really), for those that still couldn’t see CV insanity as the “plandemic” that it is, after Canada’s invocation of the Emergency Act…full-on hard-core fascism from our northern neighbor…
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"Kip's VRA financial newsletter is a MUST read for every saavy investor in this country. Disregard it at your own peril. His mantra is my mantra. Kip Herriage's newsletter is my financial Bible."
--Wayne Allyn Root
2008 Libertarian Vice Presidential candidate
Author, "The Conscience of a Libertarian"
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