"Kip's VRA financial newsletter is a MUST read for every saavy investor in this country. Disregard it at your own peril. His mantra is my mantra: Buy Gold and China. Sell short on pretty much everything else. Kip Herriage's newsletter is my financial Bible."

--Wayne Allyn Root
2008 Libertarian Vice Presidential candidate
Author, "The Conscience of a Libertarian"

Twitter: @kherriage

Twitter: @kherriage

Karl Bessey

Mary Dee

Mike Budny 
Saturday
Sep202014

VRAletter.com Update: Emerging Risks Surround the Planet - Action Steps to Take Now

This weeks reversal higher in the markets came on the heels of even more money printing news out of China. I cover this in more depth later in this update as well, but here’s the gist of it; The Central Bank of China (PBOC) announced another newer and even better round of quantitative easing (QE), this time in the amount of CHY 500 billion (roughly USD $84 billion). These freshly printed digits are being deposited in the 5 largest Chinese banks, in equal amounts, which they say will “encourage Chinese banks to lend more money“.  Let’s hope so…their stock market just had its worst day in over 6 months and the economic news out of China has been dismal at best.

When we look at the global economy over the past 6 years, following the onset of financial collapse in 2008, it is absolutely stunning how large a role China has played. They have consistently purchased at least 50% of the world’s most important commodities (iron ore, grain, cotton, oil, gold, etc). These figures are mind blowing to say the least, but what kind of financial shape have these massive expenditures left them in?  A precarious one, at best.

Sure, China’s news today turned around a poor stock market, but the BIG question that every top expert that I know and trust is asking remains the same; “how much longer will the global economy be on life support, where additional trillions in fresh currency and debt are needed each and every year just to keep the patient alive??”  

 

IS ALL OF ASIA A BLACK SWAN EVENT WAITING TO HAPPEN?

One of the many, and most serious, global black swan possibilities is of course Japan’s ongoing economic demise, something I have written about in the VRA a great deal over the years. As a top 3 global power (along with the US and China), the coming collapse in Japan’s government bonds will send tsunami-sized shockwaves throughout the entire world, while turning this once great and proud country into the next Zimbabwe.

For those that may have forgotten, Zimbabwe was our modern day Weimer, Germany. In 1923, and as a result of missing a single debt reparation payment, Germany began its epic financial collapse…which ultimately led to the rise of power for Adolph Hitler and of course, World War II.

From 1999 to 2013, the inflation rate in Zimbabwe averaged 54,912 %. And yes, this was the average over a 14-year period. As incredible as this number may be to believe, the worst level of inflation actually occurred in July of 2008, when it hit an all time monthly high of                2,660,522 %! These are the official numbers as reported by the Reserve bank of Zimbabwe. I keep a Zimbabwe $100 trillion dollar note in my day timer, as a reminder of what happens when government finances go horribly wrong. By the way, that $100 trillion note was barely enough to cover the cost of a local newspaper.

You’re probably asking “but that was Zimbabwe…could this really happen in Japan, or to another major global economic power”?

Trust me….the leaders of both Zimbabwe and Germany never believed that it would happen to them…and these two countries are by no means alone in hyperinflationary collapse history.

Amazingly, 32 countries have experienced the total collapse of their currency due to hyperinflation over the last 100 years, with 21 countries having experienced it in the past 25 years and 3 countries in just the past 10 years(Madagascar, Romania and Zimbabwe). The United States is actually one of the few countries to have experienced not one, but TWO currency collapses during its history (1812-1814 and 1861-1865). With our current level of fiat money printing and ongoing monetary destruction, many experts believe that a third currency collapse is in the cards once again…count this author in that camp. It’s a question of when, not if…

Back to Japan. With debt to GDP now surging past 230%, Japan is well past the danger zone and as a result, the government has resorted to desperate economic measures…truly, Japan has become a financial twilight zone. In fact, Greece (by several measures) is actually in much better fiscal shape than Japan!

But as hard as this may be to believe, Japan’s financial picture is in actuality far worse than even this. Instead of measuring fiscal health using GDP figures, a better comparison is to examine each country’s debt to tax revenue, since that is the government’s source of income. This also offers a better comparison because different countries have very different levels of taxation. A country with high taxes can afford more debt than a low tax country. Debt to GDP ignores this difference. Comparing debt to tax revenue reveals a much truer picture of the burden of each country’s debt on its government’s finances.

When we use these figures, Japan is in the worst shape of every developed country, with debt as a percentage of tax revenue at a shocking 900%! In fact, they are twice as bankrupt as even Greece, which is in second place at 475%.

What about the U.S.? We have now jumped up to third place on this illustrious list, with a debt to income measure of more than 400%. If the U.S.were a family, it would have needed serious financial planning long ago. But boy oh boy does it help to have the world’s reserve currency, which forces other countries to convert their own currency into US dollars before transacting much of their international business…and for essentially all commodities, including oil, gold, silver, etc.

Not to be left off of the list is previously mentioned China. Even with today’s $500 billion (Yuan) QE, Hong Kong's index fell for an eighth session in a row overnight. In the mainland,China's two major share indexes posted their biggest daily loss in more than six months to an 8 week low, after a slew of weak economic data generated fresh worries about China's economy and prompted their latest round of QE.

China's lack of monetary growth (relative to past extremes) is a fact, and it’s resulting in the slow unwind of the entire previous boom. We’ve all seen China’s ghost cities and read about their ongoing real estate issues, but this is only the beginning.

Continue to avoid Chinese stocks. Their version of a free market system, something they call “state sponsored capitalism”, is really not much different from what we see here domestically. The U.S. ran trillion dollar plus annual deficits for 5 straight years, and while record tax revenue has helped a great deal of late, we continue to run up our unpaid tab. Through August our deficit was already at $598 billion, with 4 full months to go.

China's central bank, the People's Bank of China, continues to announce short-term boosts in credit, what we call QE, however these are minor efforts that will only slow the ultimate collapse, with little chance of reversing it.

STEPS TO TAKE NOW

While no one knows exactly how much longer QE will continue to be well received by the markets, we have all the evidence that we need to know it cannot bail out the global economy forever. At some point, much sooner than later, trillions upon trillions in new debt will have to be resolved. Unfortunately for Japan, China and the US (along with all of Europe), once interest rates begin to spike, making these payments will be more and more difficult. This is when the bond market vigilantes will pounce.

For now, make sure you have zero exposure to China and Japan….this includes Australia as well.

Sell any investment that is bond/debt related, where the maturity is longer than 3 years.

Continue to dollar cost average into precious metals and the miners....mining stocks are trading at rediculously low levels...and are as oversold as at any point in memory. 

(The VRA Portfolio has a complete list of recommendations)

Next up, be ready for an explosive move higher in the VIX (the fear index). As we head into the always crazy October time frame, look for serious volatility to return....and currently, there is next to zero fear in the market, which is very interesting considering we are starting our NEXT war in the Middle East, talk of WWIII due to Russia's aggression in Ukraine and the fears of destabilization elsewhere in Europe.

The stock markets next moves are critical in determining the overall health of this market…which as I’ve written looks shaky at best, judging by almost all of the internals that I follow (momentum, sentiment, leadership and breath).

The risks surrounding us today have never appeared greater, and to top it off we now have an Ebola virus outbreak that has already claimed more than 2700 lives. The CDC and WHO are now saying that this is nowhere near over and that the worst still lies ahead, with 500,000 being infected within a few short months. In fact, the CDC just began telling US hospitals that they should expect Ebola to hit our shores, along with the specific steps to take. Scary stuff for sure. Even scarier for the 3000 US soldiers that our President just ordered to Liberia…the epicenter of the Ebola outbreak. Why our young hero's must be forced to do the worlds heavy lifting is anyones guess...just another example of Rome burning.

The stock markets of the world have ridden all of these negatives up the proverbial wall of worry…and when the central bank led buying frenzy ends, there will be hell to pay….and we will be prepared to make fortunes. 

Until next time, thanks again for reading.

Kip Herriage

VRAletter.com

 

Wednesday
Jul092014

All is Fine – Tech is Great - No Need to Worry & WAR’s New Book

Jul 07, 2014

It’s an incredibly special time in the US and niche-specific parts of the globe.

That is, IF you are among the 1% that is closely connected to major money center banks, investment houses, and/or governments around the world. The “money cartels” control literally 90% of all paper money in circulation, and unfortunately, carry that “Master of the Universe” over-sized, unchecked ego’s to go with it. They also have full access to top leaders in government, illegall inside information, high speed trading tech, and some of the most toxic derivatives ever invented, which then allows these corrupted 1% moneymen to make money off of US on a daily...nearly 100% of the time effective basis as well.  

What’s that old saying? “Power corrupts; absolute power corrupts absolutely”….yep.

Stock markets are at or approaching all time highs, the job market is supposedly getting better (as long as you enjoy part time/minimum wage incomes), and speed of light increases in new technology…in order to make our lives easier and more efficient…keep coming at breakneck pace. Advancements in technology…especially the kinds that we are witnessing right before our eyes… are the stuff right out of science fiction movies from just a decade ago. Crazy. And this has to be good, right?

Well, “probably so”. To play devils advocate on one of the most important conversations of our lifetime, consider the following (and I believe incredibly insightful) quote from a most infamous person.

“It is not possible to make a LASTING compromise between technology and freedom, because technology is by far the more powerful social force and continually encroaches on freedom through REPEATED compromises. Another reason why technology is such a powerful social force is that, within the context ofgiven society, technological progress marches in only one direction; it can never be reversed. Once a technical innovation has been introduced, people usually become dependent on it, unless it is replaced by some still more advanced innovation. Not only do people become dependent as individuals on a new item of technology, but, even more, the system as a whole becomes dependent on it.

When a new item of technology is introduced as an option that an individual can accept or not as he chooses, it does not necessarily REMAIN optional. In many cases the new technology changes society in such a way that people eventually find themselves FORCED to use it.” 

Regardless of your personal position on advancements in technology, I doubt anyone can seriously disagree with the above quote…maybe not even when you find out who wrote it….none other than Ted Kaczynski. You know, the mad-man that came to be known as the “Unabomber”, having forced the NY Times to publish his "Manifesto", along with his promise that he would stop bombing people if they would publish (he bombed and killed 3 and injured 23 from the late 70’s to mid 90’s).

Long story short….the FBI tracked this mental case down through Kaczynski’s own brother, who recognized his writings, following the Times decision to publish.

Sorry folks….not to go all Ted Kaczynski on you today, but he makes a compelling case about the future of global cultures, personality “adjustments”, and the future of mankind’s freedoms and prosperity….most all due to technological innovation.

Final point before we leave this discussion behind. Even if you disagree with every single thing that this insane murderer had to say, maybe remember this as well;

If you work in traditional retail and your company is similar to a Radio Shack, JC Penney….or pretty much ANY local mall type business….how have the advances in technology helped you and your job security? Your income? Your safety net? Your retirement?

And of course, as time goes on, the dislocations from tech advancements will only increase; One robot doing the work of 50 men/women…driverless cars/trucks that make the driver “optional”….or consider the wisdom of what Larry Page (Google CEO) had to say just this weekend on the subject of advances in technology and the resulting job destruction;

"You just reduce work time," Page said. "Most people, if I ask them, 'Would you like an extra week of vacation?' They raise their hands, 100% of the people. 'Two weeks vacation, or a four-day work week?' Everyone will raise their hand.”

Yep….my hand is up Larry. I would also like for my children’s colleges to accept in payment my eternal gratitude and best wishes, in lieu of actual money.

Page continues….

“Most people like working, but they'd also like to have more time with their family or to pursue their own interests. So that would be one way to deal with the problem, is if you had a coordinated way to just reduce the workweek. And then, if you add slightly less employment, you can adjust and people will still have (part-time) jobs."

Brilliant stuff here Google CEO….must be nice to be worth $100 billion. Heck, I might even say stupid sh*t like this if I had that kind of bank roll. The truly interesting part of all of this is that other "next level thinkers” seem to agree with Page. Folks….here’s the reality….Page and other major leaders in tech are well aware of the job losses coming from technology displacement. They’re just giving us fair warning… now.

But hey, that’s long term stuff right? All is well now….it’s back to business as usual….time to forget those ugly last 7-8 years.

However, since I enjoy being a fair and balanced reporter, let’s take a quick look at the flip side.

Jobs and the Economy

Great “headline” unemployment number out this past Friday. Turns out we are down to a 6.1% unemployment as the US added well over 280k jobs in June. Let’s freakin’ celebrate, right? Hmmm…..as it turns out, the US actually LOST 500k FULL TIME jobs….while adding about 800k PART TIME jobs…..you know, those benefit-less 20-30 hour work week jobs that “may” pay you $10/hour. Have fun paying your ever increasing gas, electricity, rent and food bills (thank you currency inflation) with these awesome new jobs….which our fine Prez will no doubt be bragging about all over the country as he tries to save his bacon as the LOWEST rated President in the last 70 years. Kudo’s BHO…you’ve been a true unifier of the country…without question, you absolutely represent all of us.

The Reality of the Stock Market & The Madness of Crowds

First, what we are witnessing is not real. What I mean is this; yes….stocks are in fact going higher, no one could question that. Here’s what’s not “real” about it.

The propellant of higher equity prices had it’s origin in something we all know well….the Federal Reserve/Central Bank fiat currency printing press. But we’ve known this for years. This grossly manipulated, financial Frankenstein, cannot and will not last. Folks….its always “different this time”….until its not.

Here’s what’s driving prices higher NOW….there’s a massive merger and acquisition boom spreading across the planet….of course all due to cheap and easy central bank money. Fortune 500 co’s (and more) are now issuing debt at all-time low interest rates, then using the proceeds for either share-repurchase programs, or much more commonly now, to simply buy out their weaker (but important) competition. Sounds great right….like smart business…and maybe it is. But there’s a larger and much more important question to ponder.

What’s the first thing to take place following a merger/buyout?? You guessed it….corporate downsizing! Or, what my boss at my Wal-Mart told me at the age of 17 (when I requested time off for a senior graduation trip); “Son….if you do this, we will have to let you go”. So yes, I went on the trip….and yes, he corporate downsized me.

And this is the harsh reality of the M&A binge now….FAR more  full time employees losing their jobs. And yes, this is one of the increasingly important reasons why the Labor Force Participation Rate will continue to climb to new highs, which very sadly stands at a 35 year high, with more than 92 million adults out of work here in the good ole USA. Come on BHO….let’s hear you tell this truth just ONCE. I think we all know the odds of this happening. About the same as the odds of finding a single person that knew BHO or ever saw him on the campus of Columbia U. Don’t believe me? Think I’m being a right-wing hater?

Just ask our good friend Wayne Allyn Root…..BHO’s classmate at Columbia for the same 4 year period (as in exact). I don’t want to steal too much of Wayne’s thunder, so let me encourage you to BUY Wayne’s new book….out July 14th…”The Murder of the Middle Class”…on Amazon or Wayne’s site (pre-order til next week). The primary title sounds a bit depressing, I know, but the bi-line makes it a must read; “How to Save Yourself and Your Family From the Criminal Conspiracy of the Century”. I’m halfway done with my advance copy now and Wayne really delivers with this focused and spot-on, in your face effort. Of course, I would have been blown away surprised if he hadn’t. W.A.R. is the single most consistent, common sense and passionate conservative that I have ever had the great pleasure of knowing. He’s also become a close personal friend, and someone that’s always under-promised and over-delivered for us.  Let’s support our good friend and invest $25 or so into a great book …you can thank me later.

Final Thoughts and Actions to Take

First, shorting this market takes big brass ones….which is probably exactly why we should be short this over-heated bull right now….except for this old-time market adage; “the market can stay irrational much longer than we can stay solvent”. Talk about words of wisdom.

Folks, at this point EVERYONE is bullish. At least all the regulars you’ll see in print and on TV. Probably a good time for anyone serious about money management to read “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds” by Charles McKay (1841). This book allowed me to get out of the dot-com crazed stock market mania in late 1999….just months before that HUGE top was in place….which saved my Wall Street clients a ton of money (and ultimately led me to start the VRA, in 2003).

What is it that Buffet says? “We should be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy…”. My educated guess is that Mr. B is taking profits right now on many of his holdings….which we won’t find out about of course until the end of the quarter (when Berkshire Hathaway files).

VRA Recommendation?  By my count, there are more than 10 black swan probabilities, and literally anyone of them could take place tonight. And, if just one does, the Dow Jones opens down 1000 points. So….I’m gonna pass on any long reco’s, others than those in the VRA Portfolio of course. I’ve seen this movie before….it doesn’t end too well for most of the sheeple, which love to invest right at the top.

By the way, did you notice the VIX index today? It rose by 10% on a fairly quiet day….something I find quiet interesting. The VIX looks ready to pop higher - big time.

Also, continue to buy gold and silver with every chance you get. Inflation is coming….of this there can be no doubt. How do I know this with absolute certainty? One, the very definition of inflation is an increase in money supply/printing….check. Two, I can see currency inflation end-results everywhere I go. Sure, IPhones and IPAD’s may be dropping in price, but amazingly, it’s still tough to eat these (where’s Job’s when you really need him).

And, with inflationary prices, bond prices will be destroyed from current levels…meaning that bond yields must head higher. Folks, before long, we will begin to see skyrocketing rates.

Until next time….thanks again for reading. Stay Frosty.

Kip  

 

Thursday
Jun262014

Short, short notice....Please join ME this Thursday (now) @ 11 AM EST!

Happy Thursday morning to all you over achieving, type A, RHINOS!
 
Each morning we host our VL Launch call and WMI Charge Call…..but this morning is gonna be a bit different. 
I’d love to have you join me. Surprises and Opportunities…..Plus MONEY….just in case you are the greedy businessperson type and needed that extra little PUSH :)
 
Hope to hear you PACK the line out. And by the way….GO USA SOCCER!!!!!!!
 
Hope to hear you @ 11 AM EST…oh….call in early so I can personally hear your name and put a face to it. I’ll be on the line at 10:55 AM EST.
 
Kip Herriage
 
PS: Got a great run in this morning, plus all hopped up on vitamins and green tea….be forewarned.
 
(11:00 am ET) "Daily Charge! Call" with Kip Herriage
                         
+1 (712) 432-6308 Access Code: 100115#
 

 

Tuesday
Jun032014

1000 Point Drop Coming - Time for 200% Plus Returns Once Again! 

Hi Kip, Thanks for the recommendations!  I only had a little in my account - about $45.  I started with the VIX trade and made enough there to upgrade to your gold mining rec. It has turned into more than a thousand dollars right now. Yea!  You are my hero! KK

Kip, I was skeptical, as other newsletters have burned me in the past. I came in and used puts on the S&P and made more money in just 3 months than I‘ve ever made in investing. That’s over 40 years by the way. I’m 7 for 8 with you so far and about to buy that Tesla you write about with my gains. Just really glad I got your email.  MP

 Mr. HerriageYou weren’t kidding when you said you felt confident about where the market was going. I made over 300% in less than 2 months. Not sure how you do this but I have worked with these so-called guru’s on wall st. and they don’t come close to your results.  Thank you, thank you!   LT

WHETHER OR NOT you subscribe and become a member of the VRA, I only ask that you pay attention to what’s really happening…I believe it’s vital for your financial health in the coming months.

The world is reaching a crucial stage of financial transformation, and while no one has a crystal ball that’s perfect, 218% in gains over the past few months back up the fact that the VRA is killing it for our Members.  

The VRA Trading and Investing System is having one of its best years ever. Since February 12th of this year, we have already locked in gains of 218%!

S&P ETF: + 43%

S&P Calls: +25%

VIX Index: + 108%

S&P Calls: + 42%

BUT THE BIGGEST MOVES OF ALL ARE ABOUT TO HAPPEN...AND "ALMOST" EVERYONE ELSE WILL BE CAUGHT FLAT FOOTED.

Hello again. Since 2003 I have been the sole publisher and editor of the globally renowned investment newsletter, the Vertical Research Advisory, and since that time here are a few of my predictions and recommendations:

2003: Recommended that investors buy gold at $375/oz and silver at $4.75/oz...gains of more than 500% followed.

2004: Recommended "Chinese Miracle" equities....gains of 120-350% followed.

2007: Began warning investors about the coming collapse in real estate and the stock market. We know what happened next.

2008-2009: VRA Subscribers made more than 500% in just under 6 months as we used ETF's to profit from the wild swings in the market.

2010-2011: VRA Subscribers made more than 1300% on my recommendation of Ivanhoe Mines…in less than 10 months!

2014: Gains of 218% in less than 5 months, using ETF's and Options.

These are just a small sampling of the profit situations that my Subscribers have been able to lock in by using the VRA Trading and Investing System....and NOW....the really big gains are about to begin!

WHAT'S NEXT:

By taking advantage of this all-time low renewal offer, all VRA Subscribers will immediately find out about:

1) My Stock of the Century: This almost completely undiscovered global oil and gas small cap stock has just closed on a $200 million joint venture with two leading energy companies...and the stock price of my Stock of the Century will soon explode higher. I predict gains of 500% this year and more than 5000% in the next 3 years.

2) Specific gold and silver opportunities that will return more than 1000% this year, EVEN IF GOLD AND SILVER PRICES GO NOWHERE.... 

3) Take advantage of the VRA Trading and Investment System to lock in short term gains using ETF's and Options. Soon, our 218% returns from this year will look small in comparison....especially when the next major shoe drops in the global economy...which is MUST closer that almost anyone thinks.

ACTION TO TAKE:

For the next few days, you can take advantage of this all-time low offer for the VRA. Priced at a full 90% off of the normal price of $3995, you can lock in an annual price of just $395 by acting NOW!

Go to: vraletter.com

Use Promo Code: vrapromo

Make no mistake about this....my trading and investing system has never flashed the kinds of profit signals that I am seeing today. Use this opportunity to make the kinds of returns that have historically been reserved for Wall Streets insiders only.

 

But you must act now....when this offer is gone, it will be gone for good.

Vraletter.com >>>> promo code: vrapromo

 

Thank you and I truly look forward to working with you!

Kip Herriage

VRA Publisher/Editor (since 2003)

 

Wednesday
May072014

VRA Update – A Sea Change is Taking Place

At the VRA, we went long the stock market last October (through the purchase of UPRO, the 3 x leveraged ETF – S&P 500), but admittedly, did so grudgingly.

The bottom line on the decision to become bullish was really two-fold. The FED’s ongoing policy of printing fiat currency…quantitative easing…was continuing to pump ridiculous amounts of money into the economy/stock market, and every major indicator that I followed indicated that the market would move sharply higher. In addition, we were beginning the most seasonally bullish period for the markets, as the October – May time frame typically gives investors their very best investment returns. In short, the VRA Trading/Investing System was very bullish.

On Friday, I recommended taking profits in UPRO, and while booking a gain of 43% is always welcomed, it was not an easy decision. As you have been reading, I have battled this decision for weeks, but the combination of events taking place now saw the VRA System flash its first “market reversal” since last October.  The negatives now far outweigh the positives, and while this doesn’t guarantee that the stock market will go into collapse mode, it does tell us that being long stocks is now a much more risky proposition.

 A SEA CHANGE HAS OCCURRED

 Much like the ominous events of early to mid 2008, we are seeing a major confluence of negatives, and these negatives simply make it impossible for me to be bullish on stocks. The negatives include a sea change in both the fundamentals as well as the technicals. Let’s review these now.

Fundamentally, the macro environment has swung from positive to negative, and the negatives now appear to be coming to a major head. Geopolitically, we have the Russia-Ukraine situation that is quickly devolving into a major international conflict….one that could even lead to the next World War. In fact, leading voices throughout Europe are now voicing this exact possibility….warnings not tossed around willy nilly. Folks, anyone selling this conflict short is either not paying attention or has a very short memory. And, unlike recent global military actions/uprisings, this one has the potential to affect economic growth and development around the globe… FAR more than anything else we have seen recently…..which is why investors of the world must be on high alert.

 On a somewhat different, but I believe incredibly important note, consider for a moment the following:

  • ·       When it comes to geopolitical realities, anyone born post 1990 or so has only known one thing….global military conflict…war… as being the norm, instead of the outlier. Prior to 9/11 and following the invasion of Kuwait, we had the first Iraq War….then, following 9/11, we saw not only Iraq War 2 (and occupation), but the war/occupation in Afghanistan as well. For the purposes of this VRA Update, we are not even including global conflicts such as the Arab Spring, the takeover of Libya, the continuing and disastrous civil war in Syria, or US/Allied involvement in countries like Pakistan (a major nuclear power), Yemen and Somalia where (combined) the US and its allies have already used more than 1000 drone strikes to attack the enemy. And folks, this doesn’t include the countless number of drone strikes that continue to occur in Iraq and Afghanistan. Just to be clear, I am extremely pro-military…as it concerns our men and women that are in harms way and that very bravely serve their country.  They continue to represent the very best of us, albeit at the direction of those political/governmental, and yes…corporate interests…that would almost certainly never have the courage to do the same. This is why I have been a major supporter of bringing back the draft. On the surface, this would seem like a bizarre statement, however, when you then realize that the decision makers sending our young men and women off to war would then be forced to include their own children to such an uncertain and high risk fate, the idea behind bringing the draft back begins to make quite a bit more sense. Question; how many wars would our decision makers actually support and be involved in, with the knowledge that their own children might be on the front lines? Something to ponder…especially when you consider my next points.

Combined, in Iraq and Afghanistan, US military losses total more than 6700 lives lost. In addition, the US has seen more than 50,800 service men and women wounded in action. As incredibly sad and startling as these statistics are, the losses do not stop there. According to the Department of Veteran Affairs, following 9/11, more than 100,000 suicides have taken place, among active and retired military.  The costs of war are truly great, which is why they should be entered into with a great deal of thought and an even larger degree of trepidation.

Following the last 25 years of global war, is the US more or less respected globally, and are we safer now than we were before? I think we all know the answer to both.

These are such important questions, and unfortunately, very few real conversations are taking place around them. But there’s another issue that may be even more important, and it may be the one that turns Russia-Ukraine into WWIII.

THE NEW NORMAL – IMMUNITY AS A WEAPON FOR WORLD WAR

The global conflicts that I’ve written about here, along with the untold casualties and costs that have come with them, may well be leading us down the path of the next great global conflict….the next world war. The issue I’m referring to is human immunity. Over the last 25 years, the world has come to see these global conflicts, civil wars and actual wars as normal…they are essentially nothing more than the cost of doing business to most.  Little actually surprises us these days, and in fact, we would be more surprised were we to be told that peace had broken out globally and that wars were a thing of the past.

It’s the conditioned mindset that we not only expect war, but that we now accept war, that should have us most concerned for what might be coming.  And, if this is the state of mind for the non-military, non-government segment of the population, you can only imagine the mindset that exists for those that reside inside the military industrial complex. If we, as regular folks on the planet, are now immune to the dangers and risks of war, exactly how immune must those inside the war machine be? Beyond immunity, they must certainly smell opportunity.

It’s this complacency…this view of war as the norm… that I believe should have us extremely concerned about what Russia-Ukraine (or a future conflict) might quickly evolve into. Ask yourself this question; On a scale from 1-10, how concerned would you be if you heard that Russia and Ukraine were officially at war, and that China, Iran and North Korea announced they were allies of Russia, and joining the war in support? I’m sure that many reading this would say you were a “10” and that these events would concern you a great deal. But the average person on the street? Not only would the average person care little, 90% would be unable to show you where Russia is on a map. They could surely tell you about the next big album to drop, or who is sleeping with whom in Hollywood, but global military conflict is not exactly high on most people’s lists these days.

Sure, much of this blame lies with our changes in society and our bottom of the rung educational system…but candidly, shouldn’t we come to expect this culture of immunity following the shock-to-the-systemevents from the last 25 years? Sadly, I believe the answer is yes. Now, more than ever, we are only awakened when something truly outrageous happens. My concern is that this is the exact mindset developing for the next world war, and whether it happens as a result of today’s Russia-Ukraine conflict, or something yet to come, the planet is perfectly ripe for the next great military conflict.  

Final note on this extended point. History tells us that the best cure for global economic recession/depression is WAR….and with the military industrial complex at maximum strength and control, all it might take is the next big false flag event…and folks…WWIII could soon become our new reality. How shocked/concerned will we really be??

In addition to the military/war risks, we now have a number of fundamental/macro risks that we must consider….risks that were not present until recently. As I’ve been writing, China’s economy has slowed considerably, and as a primary engine for global economic growth, this slowdown is already being felt in the US and elsewhere. Since Russia-Ukraine reached the level of economic sanctions, Russia’s stock market has dropped a stunning 22%, with even larger losses of more than 30% in 2014. These events make China’s growth all the more important. In the US, housing has hit a brick wall, with housing starts and mortgage applications flashing recessionary warnings. Just this week we saw many of the major housing stocks break their 200-day moving averages, and as leading indicators, this is a worrying economic sign.

The stock markets technical indicators have me very concerned as well…another major reason the VRA Trading System is bearish.

Overall, earnings reports for US companies have been fairly solid….but it’s the markets negative reaction to these earnings reports that has me concerned. Of course, the collapse in price for the techs and biotechs has had me concerned for some time…and their attempt at recovery this week came on very light volume and then were slam dunked again on Friday as the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 dropped by close to 2%. I encourage students of technical analysis to pull up the charts on the stock markets leaders for this past year, and study their chart patterns from the past 90- days or so. You will see a common pattern among them, and one that is referred to as a “head and shoulders”, universally recognized as among the most bearish of chart patterns. Folks….I see H&S patterns everywhere I look….these rounding patterns tell us that the markets leaders are very likely in the process of breaking down, and that the sellers far outweigh the buyers. We should also heed the warnings from VRA source “top secret”…one of the best market experts I’ve ever known…and his bear market warnings as a result of decreasing money flows.

The one saving grace has been the way blue chips have supported the market. For example, while the Nasdaq witnessed a near 10% correction, and is still lower by 7% on the year, the S&P 500 is lower by just 2%. This fact is the ONLY fact that is keeping the majority of bulls bullish. Should the big caps start to play catch up on the downside, we will see most everyone desert the stock market…and this is when the really big losses will begin. And yes, this is now what I expect to take place and another reason the VRA went from bullish to bearish.

The final saving grace for the stock market is of course the FED….continued Central Bank financial manipulation.  Here’s my prediction for the FED. For as long as possible, Yellen’s FED will continue to saypubliclythat the FED will move forward with their tapering program on QE. Yellen and her fellow FED bankers will tell us that “economic growth continues to take place” and that “the FED is committed to the continued reduction in QE”. However, as global conflict, reductions in economic growth, and 20-30% stock market losses take place, the FED will do the only thing the FED knows how to do….print more money…which in this case will also mean a “temporary suspension of the taper in QE”, and in fact, another INCREASE in QE.

Folks….if I am correct (and with as little ego as possible, I will put my track record up against anyone…especially the 1000 economists that work for the FED), we will see an incredible amount of stock market volatility going forward…along with large market declines. IMPORTANTLY, this decline will not happen in a straight line, and while we must be prepared to go short….we must also be prepared to then cover our short positions and in some cases, go long for a counter-trend bear market rally. For example, when the market starts to get wind of the FED’s increase in QE, the rally higher will be stunning….and anyone short the market will be hurt badly. This is why I continue to recommend that VRA Subscribers use options as an investment strategy. Options give us the ability to easily go long or short and to also use a great deal of leverage without the risk of large/unknown losses (which are very real with short selling and futures trading).        

With the 43% gain on UPRO, we have locked in profits of 218% so far in 2014. The market is setting us up perfectly for what should be a record year for the VRA.

Until next time, thanks for reading….make it a great week

Kip