VRA Investment Update: Disinflation is Here. Get Ready for 2% Inflation Next Year PLUS Fed Rate Cuts. How We Want to Play It.

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VRA Investment Update: Disinflation is Here. Get Ready for 2% Inflation Next Year PLUS Fed Rate Cuts. How We Want to Play It.

Good Thursday morning. July CPI (consumer prices) gained 3.2% on an annual basis, less than the 3.3% consensus from economists estimates. On a month-to-month basis, inflation increased just 0.2%, which was in-line with estimates while year/year CPI came in at 4.7%, matching estimates. The report also said real average weekly earnings were unchanged last month, in another positive sign that the Fed can be less concerned about a wage price spiral.

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VRA Investment Update: Follow the Semis & Buy The Dip. Economic Acceleration; The Trump Economic Miracle

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VRA Investment Update: Follow the Semis & Buy The Dip. Economic Acceleration; The Trump Economic Miracle

Breaking: Treasury yields lost momentum this AM, with stock markets reversing higher, after the Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims rose to 211K last week, up from 190K the week before and more than the 195K forecast by analysts. The 10-year yield sits at 3.96%, after trading above 4% before the data. The data indicates the labor market may be weakening (due to higher interest rates).

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VRA Investment Update: The US Economy is Accelerating (thanks #45). Investor Sentiment is Heavily Bearish…and Why That's Bullish.

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VRA Investment Update: The US Economy is Accelerating (thanks #45). Investor Sentiment is Heavily Bearish…and Why That's Bullish.

This morning we learned that weekly jobless claims came in at just 190,000, another incredibly low reading which backs up a series of economic data from the last 1–2 months that show the economy is actually accelerating, rather than slowing down.

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VRA Investment Update: Shades of 12/2018. End The Fed. Stock Traders Almanac; Seasonally Bullish.

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VRA Investment Update: Shades of 12/2018. End The Fed. Stock Traders Almanac; Seasonally Bullish.

J Powell came heavy Wednesday, raising rates as expected by .50%, but hawkish without question, targeting a peak rate of 5.1%. While the Fed broadly likes what they see regarding inflationary trends, their big concern is employment, specifically wage pressure/inflation. This is what has the equity markets concerned…will the Fed break something again…this time the jobs market.

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VRA Investment Update: Preparing for A Sharp Move Higher. Why the 200 Day Moving Average Matters So Much

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VRA Investment Update: Preparing for A Sharp Move Higher. Why the 200 Day Moving Average Matters So Much

Good Thursday afternoon all. The markets look to be setting up for a catapult move higher into year end.  The technicals are forming around the 200 dma (after a near parabolic move higher post the 10/13 capitulation into heavily overbought readings), in what looks to me to be a classic consolidation pattern in advance of both the santa claus rally and January effect bullish time frames.

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VRA Investment Update: Textbook Early Bull Market Action. Looking for 25% Move Higher

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Good Thursday morning all. Not only was yesterday's huge move higher in stocks a textbook display of a new bull market (with semis up 5%, nasdaq +4%, leading the way higher), but we saw it in the internals as well with an 88% upside volume day for NYSE and near 7:1 advance/decline. No one was buying J Powells hawkish comments…the markets know what’s coming next (rate cuts).

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VRA Investment Update: Bear Market Ending as We Climb a BIG Wall of Worry?

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VRA Investment Update: Bear Market Ending as We Climb a BIG Wall of Worry?

Good Friday morning all. As we’ve covered over the last year, the current bear market…the 3rd in 4 years…actually started in February 2021. That’s when groups such as SPACs, meme stocks, China, biotechnology, etc hit a top and started to decline.

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VRA Investment Update: Sentiment & Seasonality Flashing Buy Signals. Q4 Rally, Here We Go.

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VRA Investment Update: Sentiment & Seasonality Flashing Buy Signals. Q4 Rally, Here We Go.

Good Thursday morning all. After solid back to back days our markets gave a bit of it back yesterday but we remain buyers into what we expect to be a solid move higher into the midterms and year end. Sentiment, seasonality and analytics are combining to make a strong case for a significant bear market rally.

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VRA Investment Update: Is This The Pivot?

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VRA Investment Update: Is This The Pivot?

The short-covering move higher to start the week marked the best start to a 4th quarter since 1938. The move may have been fueled by short covering and the extreme oversold (on steroid) conditions that we’ve been pointing out.

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