Good Thursday morning all. From the 10/13 capitulation lows it’s been our view that the equity markets have bottomed and that rates, the US dollar and inflation have all peaked. The action in semis/tech and housing have solidified our views. When the most important market/economic elements of the VRA Investing System… are leading the markets higher…
Read MoreGood Friday morning all and hope you had a great Christmas. Welcome to the final trading day of 2022. We start today's trading with 3 days left in the Santa Claus rally (today and first 2 days of 2023) and roughly 1 month left for the January effect, where history tells us that small caps outperform big cap stocks by a sizable margin, with tax loss selling in small caps the culprit for their year-end weakness.
Read MoreGood Thursday afternoon all. The Fed minutes from the July meeting are out and, surprise surprise, they show a Fed with multiple members expressing concerns about tightening rates too much. Good. That means they are actually following the data,
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. From +518 to -461 at the close, the Dow Jones had a near 1000 point reversal lower yesterday. An even larger percentage decline occurred in Nasdaq, which had a near 600 point swing.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Yesterday marked the 51st record close in S&P 500 this year and another ATH in Nasdaq, as it holds above the 15,000 plateau. And our internals put up another positive day…that’s 4 in a row, which hasn’t happened in several weeks.
Read MoreGood Friday morning. The VRA was proud to be the sole sponsor of Wayne Allyn Roots remarkable interview with President Donald J. Trump. Wayne, a dear friend going back some 18 years and a true American Patriot, sat down with President Trump for an exclusive,
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. The November jobs report is out and it’s a mixed bag. Big miss on estimates, with just 245,000 jobs created vs estimate of 469,000 but the unemployment rate fell to 6.7%. Month to month, trying to make sense of any government statistic is a fools errand, but it's the trend that’s worrisome.
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. The public is coming back into equities in a big way, with global retail investors surging over the last 2-weeks to record inflows. At the same time, cash on the sidelines is plummeting as sentiment quickly flips from fear to greed, with short interest in S&P 500 stocks…
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. Octobers jobs report is out and its a good report. 638,000 jobs added…just a bit on the low side…with the unemployment rate falling to 6.9%, a big beat from the estimate of 7.6%, and a full percentage point lower from Septembers 7.9%. Dow futures were -200…
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Big day today. 3rd Quarter GDP came in at a blistering 33.1%, breaking every record known to man. Now we get to find out if its a “buy the rumor sell the news” event. And this is a huge day for earnings, with the biggest of big tech reporting (after the close).
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. We’re getting the overbought pullback that we’ve been discussing here this week. Yesterdays Internals were mixed to negative with no signs so far that this might get nasty but Dow futures are -330 this am.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Last nights debate was everything an informed voter would want to see. Pence and Harris able to give semi-lengthy answers about their positions, without interruption. As we did with the Trump-Biden debate, lets see what the leading debate polls had to say:
Read MoreFollowing another sharp move higher yesterday, our melt up move higher forecast continues. We're learning this morning that Mnuchin has raised his stimulus total offer to $1.7 trillion, including another round of $1200 checks and a further bump in PPP,
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. An important (early) heads up. While we remain very bullish, medium to LT, there’s a scenario that we believe is becoming increasingly likely….we’ll be surprised if the markets like it much. The House is going to impeach Trump. There’s almost no scenario at this point where they do not.
Read MoreSome quick political/economic hitters to start the day… 1.) The last two nights of Dem debates…holy batshit crazy…what a circus. Judging solely from the feedback of long term moderate D’s, the left has gone completely off the rails. Until we see evidence to the contrary, the US remains a center-right country.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. The last 17 months have been one big, semi-expanding bullish trading range We see it in this chart of the S&P 500, from the January 2018 highs to today. The S&P 500 is now below its 2018 highs, and while we have continued to make higher highs (post 1/18), there has been no breakout.
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. Hope everyone had a a great July 4th holiday! Employment data for June was just released, showing the US economy and jobs market continues to grow at an expanding pace. 213,000 jobs were created, beating the estimates of 195,000. In addition, April and May were revised higher by 37,000 jobs.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Another big green day in US and global stock markets as bears capitulate, by covering their shorts, and then add to the already surging buyside volumes by then going long themselves. This is the nature of how a big move higher in the stock market occurs…
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"Kip's VRA financial newsletter is a MUST read for every saavy investor in this country. Disregard it at your own peril. His mantra is my mantra. Kip Herriage's newsletter is my financial Bible."
--Wayne Allyn Root
2008 Libertarian Vice Presidential candidate
Author, "The Conscience of a Libertarian"
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