VRA Investment Update: Follow the Semis & Buy The Dip. Economic Acceleration; The Trump Economic Miracle

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VRA Investment Update: Follow the Semis & Buy The Dip. Economic Acceleration; The Trump Economic Miracle

Breaking: Treasury yields lost momentum this AM, with stock markets reversing higher, after the Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims rose to 211K last week, up from 190K the week before and more than the 195K forecast by analysts. The 10-year yield sits at 3.96%, after trading above 4% before the data. The data indicates the labor market may be weakening (due to higher interest rates).

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VRA Investment Update: Nvidia Earnings Call Surprise; "AI Inflection Point". My Fox Business Interview with Charles Payne.

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VRA Investment Update: Nvidia Earnings Call Surprise; "AI Inflection Point". My Fox Business Interview with Charles Payne.

As our markets complete their overbought “pause”, we believe seasonality is playing a major role as the second half of February is historically weak. It’s actually one of the worst two weeks periods of the year.
But soon, our overbought sell-off will be behind us. Based on VRA System readings, by weeks end we should be hitting oversold levels that typically mark reversals higher, especially near the birth of new bull markets. 

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VRA Investment Update: Overbought Conditions Wearing Off. Year of the Bull Market. The One Group That MUST Be Owned.

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VRA Investment Update: Overbought Conditions Wearing Off. Year of the Bull Market. The One Group That MUST Be Owned.

Over the last 3 trading sessions the Dow Jones has lost close to 1300 points, giving up its gains to date for 2023. If our read is right on the markets for this year, this is about the time when we should begin to see reversal action higher. Headed into last Friday the rubber band simply stretched too far…we hit extreme overbought…as the move higher from the 10/13/22 capitulation lows took the markets to extended readings.

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VRA Investment Update: Shades of 12/2018. End The Fed. Stock Traders Almanac; Seasonally Bullish.

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VRA Investment Update: Shades of 12/2018. End The Fed. Stock Traders Almanac; Seasonally Bullish.

J Powell came heavy Wednesday, raising rates as expected by .50%, but hawkish without question, targeting a peak rate of 5.1%. While the Fed broadly likes what they see regarding inflationary trends, their big concern is employment, specifically wage pressure/inflation. This is what has the equity markets concerned…will the Fed break something again…this time the jobs market.

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VRA Investment Update: Preparing for A Sharp Move Higher. Why the 200 Day Moving Average Matters So Much

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VRA Investment Update: Preparing for A Sharp Move Higher. Why the 200 Day Moving Average Matters So Much

Good Thursday afternoon all. The markets look to be setting up for a catapult move higher into year end.  The technicals are forming around the 200 dma (after a near parabolic move higher post the 10/13 capitulation into heavily overbought readings), in what looks to me to be a classic consolidation pattern in advance of both the santa claus rally and January effect bullish time frames.

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VRA Investment Update: Textbook Early Bull Market Action. Looking for 25% Move Higher

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Good Thursday morning all. Not only was yesterday's huge move higher in stocks a textbook display of a new bull market (with semis up 5%, nasdaq +4%, leading the way higher), but we saw it in the internals as well with an 88% upside volume day for NYSE and near 7:1 advance/decline. No one was buying J Powells hawkish comments…the markets know what’s coming next (rate cuts).

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VRA Investment Update: Shock & Awe. 10/13 Was THE day. Time for a Proper Bear Mkt Rally. Banana Republic.

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Good Friday morning all. “Shock and awe” might be the best way to describe the short covering melt-up yesterday as stocks had their best day since the end of coronavirus insanity.

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VRA Investment Update: J Powell, the Embarrassment. Is The Bear Market Over? R's Are Surging!

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Good Thursday morning all. If you were as confused as 99% of Wall Street and the English speaking people of the world were by Fed Chair J Powells presser yesterday, where he reverted to previous form and crushed the stock market, I encourage you to listen to Tylers podcast from yesterday afternoon:

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VRA Investment Update: Bear Market Ending as We Climb a BIG Wall of Worry?

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VRA Investment Update: Bear Market Ending as We Climb a BIG Wall of Worry?

Good Friday morning all. As we’ve covered over the last year, the current bear market…the 3rd in 4 years…actually started in February 2021. That’s when groups such as SPACs, meme stocks, China, biotechnology, etc hit a top and started to decline.

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VRA Investment Update: Sentiment & Seasonality Flashing Buy Signals. Q4 Rally, Here We Go.

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VRA Investment Update: Sentiment & Seasonality Flashing Buy Signals. Q4 Rally, Here We Go.

Good Thursday morning all. After solid back to back days our markets gave a bit of it back yesterday but we remain buyers into what we expect to be a solid move higher into the midterms and year end. Sentiment, seasonality and analytics are combining to make a strong case for a significant bear market rally.

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VRA Investment Update: The Bear Market Rally We've Been Waiting For. Welcome to Unlimited QE.

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VRA Investment Update: The Bear Market Rally We've Been Waiting For. Welcome to Unlimited QE.

Good Friday morning all. Another big market comeback yesterday, featuring a Dow Jones that rallied from -350 to close +162, led once again by Nasdaq (+1.4%) and Semis (1.7%) and our new repeating pattern of MUCH better internals. This bear market rally looks and feels like it has the potential to be the first big one that we’ve had to date.

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VRA Investment Update: The Repeating Pattern of Extreme Overbought Markets. Biden Must Be an R. 2A

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VRA Investment Update: The Repeating Pattern of Extreme Overbought Markets. Biden Must Be an R. 2A

Good Thursday afternoon all. There’s been a repeating pattern over the last 18 months that’s been as reliable as clockwork; once the broad market indexes hit extreme overbought on our VRA short-term momentum oscillators (stochastics) the markets then reverse lower.

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VRA Investment Update: Jamie Dimon Awakens While HIs Top Strategist is Full-On Bullish. Small Caps Are Cheap. 15–25% Surge Higher Into Year End.

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VRA Investment Update: Jamie Dimon Awakens While HIs Top Strategist is Full-On Bullish. Small Caps Are Cheap. 15–25% Surge Higher Into Year End.

Good Thursday morning all. Yesterdays action at the open was solid, only to be met by a warning from JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon that the US economy was potentially facing a “hurricane” going forward. When Dimon speaks investors listen and the big open turned into big losses by midday.

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VRA Investment Update: Strategy Update. Pattern Changes, Fed 'Flexibility". The Anatomy of Bull & Bear Markets

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VRA Investment Update: Strategy Update. Pattern Changes, Fed 'Flexibility". The Anatomy of Bull & Bear Markets

Good Thursday morning all. Right at 3 months ago we began our planning for the Biden bear market and issuing our VRA Strategy Updates. We sold our VRA leveraged ETF holdings that focused on tech by selling TQQQ (3 x Nasdaq 100 ETF) and selling SOXL (3 x Semi ETF).

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VRA Investment Update: Blood in the Streets, AKA Investor Panic, is A Buy Signal to Contrarians. WAR, W's Freudian Slip of Freudian Slips.

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VRA Investment Update: Blood in the Streets, AKA Investor Panic, is A Buy Signal to Contrarians. WAR, W's Freudian Slip of Freudian Slips.

Good Thursday morning all. Multiple bases to cover this AM. Yesterdays disastrous trading (on the backs of Target/Walmart/Wall Street waking up to the fact that inflation is at least as high as it was some 40 years ago), had the feeling of a weight so heavy that we couldn’t even have a single mini-rally…

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VRA Investment Update: Red-Pilled and Free; America's Future. Bear Market Action. Next Up, This Market Needs Capitulation.

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VRA Investment Update: Red-Pilled and Free; America's Future. Bear Market Action. Next Up, This Market Needs Capitulation.

Good Thursday morning all. Quick note: we’re getting an increasing number of emails alerting us to the fact that you aren’t getting our VRA Letters and VRA Podcast Alerts. You know the drill; censorship comes in many forms. As always, please check your spam folder. Obviously, alert us.

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VRA Investment Update: Improvement Under the Hood. 4 VRA Horsemen. Tax Day, Mask Day.

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VRA Investment Update: Improvement Under the Hood. 4 VRA Horsemen. Tax Day, Mask Day.

Good Thursday morning all. As Tyler covered in detail on yesterdays VRA Investing Podcast (sign up for alerts @ vrainsider.com/podcast), something interesting could be brewing to restore our (short term) faith in the markets. Even as Nasdaq (-1.2%), on the back of the Netflix implosion was hit yesterday the internals actually showed improvement.

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VRA Investment Update: AAII Sentiment Survey Shocker. Excellent Market Action, Internals. The Breakout in Miners Continues.

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VRA Investment Update: AAII Sentiment Survey Shocker. Excellent Market Action, Internals. The Breakout in Miners Continues.

Good Thursday morning all. Don’t Forget: The markets are closed tomorrow for Good Friday. Two big developments: last night the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey came in at just 15.8% bulls, one of the 5–6 lowest readings on record. I’ve voted in this survey since the late 1980’s and yes, I voted bearish for this weeks survey.

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