VRA Weekly Update: Trump V Biden, Regardless Who Wins, Markets Keep Moving Higher
/Following another sharp move higher yesterday, our melt up move higher forecast continues. We're learning this morning that Mnuchin has raised his stimulus total offer to $1.7 trillion, including another round of $1200 checks and a further bump in PPP, which still has $134 billion leftover. That discharge petition in the House that we've been discussing? It has served as a high voltage shock collar to Pelosi. We continue to expect a deal to get done. Along with the fact that Trump has signed the stop gap measure on govt funding means we will not have a govt shutdown. All bullish.
Whether Trump or Biden, Markets Are Headed Higher
In the interest of time I'm including this Twitter thread, which breaks down our views on the election and its impact on the markets. As you read, know this; everything is contingent on R's holding the senate. Should Trump lose and should D's take the senate, the VRA will almost certainly flip from bullish to bearish. As you know, we expect a big Trump win. Dow futures +180, Nasdaq futures up a big 1.4%. SMH up a bigger 1.6%. Semis lead tech, tech leads the market.
Tuesday night’s debate was as contentious as we’ve seen. My observations:
This is a “base” election. Whoever gets their base to turn out, wins. Trumps base knows where he stands on the issues…but does Bidens? After last night, the left may have some interesting questions for him.
Striking was Biden disavowing the Greed New deal, while at the same time telling the left that HE is now the Dem Party (a literal statement). So, how will the Dem base (AOC, Bernie, Warren) crowd feel about his comments on the GND? BTW, this comes directly from JoeBiden.com. Just a bit of a position shift.
And, while Biden wasn’t challenged by Chris Wallace, voters may have questions about Bidens statements last night concerning;
- Biden said he never called blacks “super predators” on the Senate floor, when he was leading the charge on the ’94 Crime Bill. Maybe Biden forgot saying exactly this.
- Biden would not give his position on stacking the Supreme Court or on the filibuster in the Senate. Kind of important issues.
-According to Biden, Antifa is just an “idea” and US cities are not being set on fire with mass riots. And what is up with Bidens lack of support for law enforcement? Suburban moms want that question answered more than any other group of voters.
- And many voters should want to know Bidens position on locking the country down for cv insanity, should he win. Trump challenged him on it, but Biden would not address. Massively important issue.
Again, this is a base election. Trumps base is turbo-charged. Based on polling immediately after the debate, is Bidens?
CSPAN, a favorite of independents, saw it like this: Trump 64%, Biden 23%
Telemundo, the Spanish speaking network, a group that Biden must have to win: Trump 66%, Biden 34%
Lest we forget the job that Chris Wallace did. Wallace, a registered Dem, showed those leanings last night. This looked like a good ole fashioned 2 on 1 tag team wrestling match. But don’t take my word for it. Take a couple of minutes to read what people in Wallaces own profession, from both sides, thought about the job he did.
No, Trump did not have his best night, in my view. It’s a common issue for incumbents in their first debate. Trump was, in my view, too aggressive. And Biden didn’t come across as sleepy. He held up. But, Biden has to do this twice more. Getting his meds just right for the coming debates might be a challenge.
My view; Trump was the clear winner. Until we know what Bidens actual positions are, and until/unless he is able to get his base enthused, Biden is still in trouble.
Final, important point; we should prepare for election results that may not be known for “months”. That comes with a whole slew of other issues….such as interim President Pelosi.
Until next time, thanks again for reading…
Kip
Since 2014 the VRA Portfolio has net profits of more than 2300% and we have beaten the S&P 500 in 15/17 years.
Join us for two free weeks at VRAInsider.com
Sign up to join us for our daily VRA Investing System podcast
