VRA Weekly Update: VP Debate. The Future of the United States. VRA Market Update.
/Good Thursday morning all. Last nights debate was everything an informed voter would want to see. Pence and Harris able to give semi-lengthy answers about their positions, without interruption. As we did with the Trump-Biden debate, lets see what the leading debate polls had to say:
From Political Polls: Pence 68.9%, Harris 31.1%
From USA Today (which moderator Susan Page works for): Pence 58.5%, Harris 27.2%
Telemundo (Spanish speaking) had it Pence 76.5%, Harris 23.5%
— -
Oddly, CSPAN did not have a poll last night. Must not have liked the overwhelming “Trump won” debate poll from last time. The lone poll that I can find that gave Harris the win was…you guessed it…CNN.
My view; it wasn’t even close:
With less than a month to go before the election, yours truly will be pulling no punches going forward. As much of an independent voter as I’ve been my entire life, and I have been, and as much as I do not want to poison the VRA for our left-leaning VRA Members (I sincerely do not), this election is too important for our great country for me to be anything but honest with you.
If Biden-Harris wins…most particularly if the view is that they won by cheating…the US could well be “ungovernable”. And if Biden-Harris win straight up, the outcome could still be the same. There are simply too many people that aren’t willing to watch the country go far left/socialist. After both debates to date, that’s the point that should be clear; Biden-Harris will take the US in a much different direction. I fear that “direction” could destroy the United States (yes, even as the stock market continues to surge higher, in the short to medium term, due to the added QE/stimulus).
Breaking; we’re learning this morning that the Presidential Commission on Debates has just ruled that the next debate between Trump-Pence will be “virtual”. What?? Anything to help Biden win (teleprompter and all)? Trump has already responded that he will NOT participate in a virtual debate. Rightly so, in my view.
For a sneak peak of what our new MSM might look like, should Biden-Harris win, take a look at what happened last night in China, each time that Pence hit China hard. TV blackouts. Frankly, CNN is already there…blackouts are common on CNN when they don’t like the message.
Final point on the debate; last night as we were watching, Cindy (my amazing wife, with the patience of Job, for 32 years) said something that I think resonates with many. Cindy said “Pence is such a patient, gentlemanly person. He doesn’t get down in the mud. I hope Trump learns from Pences performance”.
Of course, I agree. But there is a big flip side to Trumps aggression. First, this is how he’s wired…doubtful that’s going to change much. Second, imagine for a second that you were president and that you were attacked for 4 full years by the left and MSM…including the Russia hoax, the impeachment scam, and soooo much more. Might you be angry and full-time flustered too? I know that I would. How Trump has held it together this well has always been stunning to me.
VRA Market Update
Following yesterdays big move higher, 530 points in the Dow, futures are higher again this morning by 175 points. After running fresh VRA System screens this morning I can tell you that while we are hitting heavily overbought on stochastics (our primary ST indicator), at the same time we are “nowhere” close to hitting overbought on our other VRA momentum oscillators. This market has room to run, and here is why…
VRA Macro Research Points to Higher Prices
- The markets look to have figured out that, at least over the short to medium term, it likely does not matter who wins. There’s simply too much liquidity in the system for stocks to decline. In fact, should Biden win, the amount of monetary (QE) and fiscal (govt) stimulus would likely be far greater than should Trump win. Highly bullish, either way.
- We have entered a new economic expansion. New highs in housing, transports, rails and materials confirm. The average economic expansion lasts 8 years on average with gains in S&P 500 of 250%.
- Inside of the last 2 years we’ve had two of the most destructive sell-offs in modern history; the Q4 2018 Fed rate-hike induced market implosion (thanks again for raising rates in December 2018, J Powell, you raving lunatic). And now the 2020 coronavirus insanity, 4 week 37% collapse…the most violent sell off in history. The point being that in less than 2 years our markets have seen more sheer calamity, over the short to medium term, than most investors have typically experienced their entire lifetimes. If history is a guide, the odds of another disastrous sell-off in the short/medium term are extraordinarily low…and these events have certainly helped to build our wall of worry. We think that has the potential to be extraordinarily bullish.
-Finally, we are entering the most bullish seasonal period for stocks. Mid-October to May are THE best times to own stocks with 90% + of all market gains occurring during this time frame.
VRA Bottom Line — I’ll repeat; in the short to medium term, it likely does not matter who wins. This market wants to go higher.
And as we’ve been sharing here, based on one of our most predictable quant points, the market is pointing to a Trump (incumbent) victory. For this to hold up, the Dow needs to stay above 26,428 (it’s August 1 price). The Dow closed at 28,303 yesterday.
Until next time, thanks again for reading…
Kip
Since 2014 the VRA Portfolio has net profits of more than 2300% and we have beaten the S&P 500 in 15/17 years.
Join us for two free weeks at VRAInsider.com
Sign up to join us for our daily VRA Investing System podcast
