VRA Investment Update: Jamie Dimon Awakens While HIs Top Strategist is Full-On Bullish. Small Caps Are Cheap. 15–25% Surge Higher Into Year End.
/Good Thursday morning all. Yesterdays action at the open was solid, only to be met by a warning from JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon that the US economy was potentially facing a “hurricane” going forward. When Dimon speaks investors listen and the big open turned into big losses by midday.
However, if you saw all of Dimon’s comments, as we did, it was much more neutral in tone. Essentially, Dimon said “it could be a serious hurricane or it could be a tropical storm…we just don’t know”.
Has Jamie Dimon been asleep for the entirety of this year? Earth to Jamie; we have 40 year highs in inflation, a Biden administration that’s acting more like a super villain than a lover of America, and a hot proxy war with Russia…the only country with more nukes than the US…that with one stupid mistake could quickly evolve into WW3.
Frankly, odd and out of touch comments from the head of the largest banking empire in the US. Jamie, tell us something we don’t know.
But here’s where it gets interesting. No sooner had Dimon’s warning sent the markets tumbling then here came the latest forecasts from JP Morgans Chief Market Strategist Marko Kolanovic (who reports directly to Dimon);
Kolanovic sees what we see here at the VRA; near record cash balances from money managers, investor sentiment readings at extreme fear, no recession on the horizon and China reopening (with massive amounts of stimulus). I also found it very interesting that Kolanovic believes “the war in Eastern Europe” (not “Putins war”…kudos) will likely “converge to a settled solution in the second half of this year”. This makes several people (that I trust) that have recently stated that things are going so badly for Ukraine that a brokered agreement is nearing. And, if you’ve seen what Germany is doing…they are now essentially neutral on the war, after pulling back all but the most basic of humanitarian funding to Ukraine…the tea leaves point to a serious loss of trust in the Ukrainian criminal oligarch puppet president Zelensky. Should the markets begin to believe that an end is in sight for Russia-Ukraine, look out above.
Kolanovic also makes the important point that share buybacks will hit a record $1.2 trillion this year, placing a solid bid under the markets and that he looks for the markets to recover all of their losses by year end.
Here, Kolaovic makes the point that we made yesterday; small cap valuations are at all time lows.
VRA Strategy Update
The action in the markets over the last 2 weeks has been “textbook” base building, reversal action. Whether or not the final lows of this bear market are in place remains to be seen, but after last week I would put those odds in the 80% plus range.
Important: We’ve just witnessed a rare and powerful reversal, featuring 3 straight days with better than 80% up-volume on the NYSE, an event that has only occurred 3 x times since 2010 (each previous occurrence marked the beginning of a major move higher).
As to this bear market…again, our 3rd in 4 years…with a view towards “history repeating”, a quick refresh here is worth a look as well.
Following the 2018 bear market (which also took the average stock down 50% plus), here’s how the broad markets looked one year later:
- One year later the S&P 500 was up 40%
- One year later the Nasdaq was up 44%
- One year later the Russell 2000 was up 34%
- One year later the semis (SMH) were up 79%
Following the 2020 bear market (which also took the average stock down 50% plus), here’s how the broad markets looked one year later:
One year later the S&P 500 was up 77%
One year later the Nasdaq was up 100%
One year later the Russell 2000 was up 131%
One year later the semis (SMH) were up 131%
** The (incredibly) powerful moves higher following the 2018 and 2020 bear markets bodes well for the markets coming out of this 2022 bear market. The move higher from here could be equally remarkable.
VRA Bottom Line: bear market rallies look just like what we’ve just seen. Fast and furious moves higher…and then they just end. Had we not already been in a brutal bear market in most stocks for over than a year, with the average stock falling more than 50%, I would be inclined to see this as more of a bear market rally. But, the economy remains strong without a recession on the horizon, led by continued strength in our two key VRA leading economic indicators; housing and transportation. With the midterms now right at 5 months away, with fund flows remaining heavy into equities (led by surging share buybacks), strong corporate earnings and extreme fear readings from multiple investor sentiment surveys, the odds favor the bulls…as I see it, by a wide margin.
CV Vaccines — More Shocking News — Genocide
Here at the VRA, for the better part of 2 years, we covered the insanity of the China Virus here…pretty much daily. It never made sense to us…it never made sense to you.
It was a plandemic through and through, a point that few even bother contesting today.
The very worst part of CV insanity were the forced vaccinations. Our view was…and remains…the same. If you want to get jabbed, that’s 100% your call. But the moment these totalitarian fascists began mandating these poison jabs was the moment that we drew a hard line in the sand.
— You want to command us to take experimental vaccines…over a flu with a 99.9% survival rate…from big pharma criminal operations with a long running history of deceiving the public, in order to line their own pockets?
EXCUSE ME?! —
Now, as we continue to learn the shocking “facts” about the vast dangers from these CV vaccines, there is new research (based on big pharmas own docs) that must be shared with everyone. Even if you took the vaccines, you deserve to know the truth. And maybe, just maybe, this research will convince some to pass on their next series of “boosters”. We must have Nuremberg 2. Must!
Here’s an excerpt from Dr Naomi Wolf’s latest (with link to full article below):
“The lies revealed are stunning.
The WarRoom/DailyClout Volunteers have confirmed: that Pfizer (and thus the FDA) knew by December 2020 that the MRNA vaccines did not work — that they “waned in efficacy” and presented “vaccine failure.” One side effect of getting vaccinated, as they knew by one month after the mass 2020 rollout, was “COVID.”
Pfizer knew in May of 2021 that 35 minors’ hearts had been damaged a week after MRNA injection — but the FDA rolled out the EUA for teens a month later anyway, and parents did not get a press release from the US government about heart harms til August of 2021, after thousands of teens were vaccinated. [https://dailyclout.io/pfizer-vaccine-fda-fails-to-mention-risk-of-heart-damage-in-teens/]
Pfizer (and thus the FDA; many of the documents say “FDA: CONFIDENTIAL” at the lower boundary) knew that, contrary to what the highly paid spokesmodels and bought-off physicians were assuring people, the MRNA, spike protein and lipid nanoparticles did not stay in the injection site in the deltoid, but rather went, within 48 hours, into the bloodstream, from there to lodge in the liver, spleen, adrenals, lymph nodes, and, if you are a woman, in the ovaries. [https://dailyclout.io/internal-pfizer-documents-prove-knowledge-that-lipid-nanoparticles-in-mice-subjects-do-not-remain-in-muscle-but-were-shown-to-be-rapidly-distributed-in-the-blood-to-the-liver/]
Pfizer (and thus the FDA) knew that the Moderna vaccine had 100 mcg of MRNA, lipid nanoparticles and spike protein, which was more than three times the 30 mcg of the adult Pfizer dose; the company’s internal documents show a higher rate of adverse events with the 100 mcg dose, so they stopped experimenting with that amount internally due to its “reactogenicity” — Pfizer’s words — but no one told all of the millions of Americans who all got the first and second 100 mcg Moderna dose, and the boosters.
Pfizer skewed the trial subjects so that almost three quarters were female — a gender that is less prone to cardiac damage. Pfizer lost the records of what became of hundreds of their trial subjects.
In the internal trials, there were over 42,000 adverse events and more than 1200 people died. Four of the people who died, died on the day they were injected.
Adverse events tallied up in the internal Pfizer documents are completely different from those reported on the CDC website or announced by corrupted physicians and medical organizations and hospitals. These include vast columns of joint pain, muscle pain (myalgia), masses of neurological effects include MS, Guillain Barre and Bell’s Palsy, encephaly, every iteration possible of blood clotting, thrombocytopenia at scale, strokes, hemorrhages, and many kinds of ruptures of membranes throughout the human body. The side effects about which Pfizer and the FDA knew but you did not, include blistering problems, rashes, shingles, and herpetic conditions (indeed, a range of blistering conditions oddly foreshadowing the symptoms of monkeypox).”
LINK: https://www.lewrockwell.com/2022/05/no_author/dear-friends-sorry-to-announce-a-genocide/
Until next time, thanks again for reading….
Kip
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