VRA Update: 1 Year Election Anniversary. Bull Market to Ramp Higher Into Year End. Precious Metals and Miners.

Good Wednesday morning all. Today marks the 1 year anniversary of the election of #45, President Donald Trump. Love him or not, here are the bottom line investment results since 11/8/16.

S&P 500: +21%

Dow Jones: +28%

Nasdaq: +30%

During the last year we've seen an amazing 70 new all-time highs, as the country is reminded of what a pro-growth, business friendly economy is supposed to look like. We've also seen overly burdensome regulations slashed...allowing entrepreneurs to do what they do best...grow their businesses. 

Remarkable. 

But folks, "literally" everything that I see, using the VRA Investing System and my 32 years of experience, tells me that we are nowhere near the end of this bull market. You hear me talk about the following often, but quickly, here are the some of the most important markers. Indicators that I have followed closley since the 1980's:

1) Sentiment; yes...investors have become much more bullish (as you'd expect with this kind of a move higher), but the most important sentiment survey that I follow...the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII.com) that I've followed since the late 80's...shows bullish percentage still under 50%. While its beginning to elevate, yours truly will not become concerned about this market reaching dangerously overbought levels until bullish percentage reaches 60%...and for weeks on end. We're still nowhere near this.

2) Seasonality: in what may be the most important statistical investing fact that exists, over the last 50 years more than 90% of all stock market gains have occurred from November to May. 90%!

And yes, we are now in November. 

We barely had a single whiff of a sell-off during the historically volatile September/October risk filled months, telling us that NOW is when we must be positioned aggressively for higher stock prices. My year target of Dow Jones 25,000 remains intact. 

3) My mentors taught me, at the young age of about 24, that you can track markets by the success in the following areas: income tax receipts, health of the housing markets and health of financial stocks. We see all-time highs in all 3 areas today. Highly, highly bullish. 

Also, by following the Nasdaq (the best barometer for excitement in the markets), we get a great feel of what the future holds. This is where high tech, high growth mometmum stocks reside, which is why so many market timers key off of it. Remember, since the election, the Nasdaq is up a big 30%.

Final point on the markets and the economy: the stock market has always served as a discounting mechanism for the future. It tells us, roughly 6 months in advance, what we can expect economically going forward. Today, the stock market is clearly telling us that both the US and global economy will continue to surge. 

Don't fight the tape...another piece of age old investing wisdom.

In my book "CrashProof Prosperity, Becoming Wealthy in the Age of Trump" I laid out two investing scenarios. In one, I said that "if" we were going to have a bear market and sluggish economy, that it would come early on in Trumps first term (lots of historical precedence for this, during the first year of a new presidency). 

Clearly, that did not happen.

In my second scenario, I laid out the more likely probability that Trump would take the markets to all-time highs, based on economic growth that finally got back to the 4-5% GDP growth of years past. Remember, in not a single year of Obama's 8 years did US GDP hit 2%. Today, we're already back to 3%.

Imagine what Trump might be able to accomplish in years 2-3. 

I am "all-in". The DJ is headed to 30,000....possibly even 35,000...over the next 3 years. If that sounds unllikely or even impossible, consider this; a move to DJ 35,000 would mean that the market would need to average a 16% return over the next 3 years. 

The Dow just had a +28% year. Not impossible at all. 

Finally for this morning, a fresh chart of gold, which is up $9/oz this morning to $1285.

As you can see below, gold has been in a solid uptrend from its December 2016 lows. Everything about this chart says it is about to have a major breakout. Big volume builds confirm this. Once gold breaks $1375/oz, there will be no stopping it.  

Now is the time to make sure your positions are in place in my favorite miners (which move 3-5 x faster than gold/silver). 

Without question, the miners will be the biggest winners in the precious metals space. My target for gold in 2018 remains $2000/oz. Once we surpass $2000 gold, we'll see a Bitcoin-like move higher. Everything that Ive learned over my 3 decades confirms the bull market that's underway in gold, silver and the miners. 

Until next time, thanks again for reading...

Kip